Andrey Rublev and Matteo Arnaldi clash for a spot in the National Bank Open final in Montreal.
The pregame narrative: Both players have seen little resistance on their paths to the semis but Rublev has faced the tougher competition of the two. He's also the better player currently, which is why I'm taking the Russian to win in straight sets as my best bet for the match.
Check out our Rublev vs. Arnaldi odds and best bet for the National Bank Open semifinal on Aug. 11.
Rublev vs. Arnaldi odds
Go to full Rublev/Arnaldi betting markets.
Best bet: Rublev -1.5 sets (-107)
Rublev easily has the best win of these two athletes heading into the semifinals. The Russian defeated world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinal (6-3, 1-6, 6-2).
Arnaldi's best win comes over 22nd-ranked Karen Khachanov in straight sets (7-5, 7-5).
Additionally, Rublev has only played 4:14 of tennis en route to the semifinal. Arnaldi, meanwhile, needed 8:38 of court time. The rest advantage should be with the Russian player.
Rublev's success at this tournament shouldn't come as much of a shock as he's been dominant on this playing surface over the last 52 weeks. In that time frame, he is 36-15 (69.2%) on hard courts.
Arnaldi did come out with the win in their most recent meeting at the French Open this year but that was on clay, which is Rublev's worst career surface (125-71).
In October, Rublev defeated the Italian in straight sets on an interior hard court. It's not exactly the same as that was indoors, but it is more comparable to the conditions of today's match.
Another stat that gives me confidence in this pick is serves held.
Rublev has held 27 of 30 service points, whereas Arnaldi has held 38 of 51. Considering the difference in competition, this is telling of how dominant the world's No. 6-ranked player has been in Montreal.
Strong servers have an advantage on outdoor hard courts. Rublev has averaged 0.57 aces per game while only recording four double faults in total.
In comparison, Arnaldi averages 0.37 aces per game and has double-faulted 15 times.
There are too many advantages for the Russian to ignore despite the result of the last match between these two. Therefore, I'm taking him to win in straight sets and advance to the final.
Key stat: Rublev has his best career surface win percentage on hard courts with a record of 183-92 (67%).
Tennis Picks made at 11:25 p.m. ET on 08/11/2024.
