Two teams in the midst of some intense playoff races meet for a primetime matchup on Sunday Night Baseball.
The pregame narrative: The Seattle Mariners are tied for the lead in the AL West while the New York Mets are a half-game out of a wild-card spot. In a battle between two very capable pitchers — Luis Castillo and Luis Severino — I like the under as my best bet.
Check out my Mets vs. Mariners picks for Sunday Night Baseball on Aug. 11.
Mets vs. Mariners picks
Go to full Mets/Mariners betting markets.
Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs (-109)
I was debating fading the Mets' team total (under 3.5 runs at -115) as my best bet, but then I realized the Mariners have been the coldest offence in baseball over the past week. So instead, I'm opting to fade these offences together.
In the past seven days, the Mariners have a 60 wRC+ and a .171/.261/.276 slash line. That's great news for Severino, who has struggled lately but is capable of getting back into a groove.
From April through June, Severino had a 3.31 ERA and a .604 opponent OPS in 15 starts. If that's the guy we see on the mound tonight, this Mariners lineup could be in for a rough one.
Fortunately for Seattle, Castillo is on the mound and should be able to keep the Mets pretty quiet.
Castillo has a 2.39 ERA since the start of July, coupled with a .580 opponent OPS. All six of those outings have been quality starts, which means six-plus innings and three or fewer earned runs.
In 98 collective plate appearances against Castillo, the Mets' current lineup is just 20-for-87 (.230) with 27 Ks.
Key stat: Sixteen of Castillo's 24 starts have gone under this number, and this under is 5-1 in Seattle's past six games.
Quick picks
Francisco Lindor over 1.5 bases (+112): If there's one Mets hitter who might be able to get to Castillo, it's Lindor.
Shifting to the leadoff spot turned out to be a great move for Lindor, who has cashed this bet in 36 of 73 games from the top of the Mets' lineup.
Lindor's power has been lacking a bit recently, but he does have three multi-hit games in his past four overall. His league-average walk rate and better-than-league-average strikeout rate indicate that he should be up there swinging.
Against Castillo, Lindor is 3-for-9 with a pair of doubles.
Parlay: Jorge Polanco, Pete Alonso both under 1.5 bases (+110): In a game where I'm not expecting much offence, I'm fading one hitter per side in this plus-money combo.
Polanco has had some modest success against Severino (2-for-7, a walk), but he's really grinding at the plate right now. Over his past 10 games, Polanco is batting .171 and has gone under 1.5 bases eight times.
As for Alonso, he's hitless through two games in this series and has gone under 1.5 bases in nine of his past 11.
Righties are batting just .198 with a .557 OPS against Castillo this year, so Alonso should struggle again tonight.
Picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET 08/11/2024.
