This weekend's big UFC 305 card is headlined by Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya.
The pregame narrative: Adesanya makes his return to challenge for the middleweight title and I'm backing his main event bout with Du Plessis to go the distance. Earlier on, I'm expecting Carlos Prates to win by finish and Jesus Aguilar to get his hand raised as a pretty sizeable underdog on the prelims.
Check out my UFC 305 picks for August 17.
UFC 305 picks overview
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| UFC 305 picks | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Du Plessis/Adesanya over 4.5 rounds | -107 | Add to betslip |
| Prates to win by finish | -122 | Add to betslip |
| Aguilar to win | +180 | Add to betslip |
UFC picks made at 1:37 p.m. ET on 08/16/24.
Go to full UFC betting markets.
UFC 305 picks
Best Bet: Du Plessis/Adesanya over 4.5 rounds (-107)
Despite the bad blood that has boiled over in the build-up, both these fighters have a history to support this bout reaching the final bell.
Du Plessis won the middleweight belt at UFC 297 in Toronto by decision over Sean Strickland, who defeated Adesanya to end his title reign.
Du Plessis has only been knocked out once in his career (in 2018 before his UFC tenure).
Adesanya built up a reputation over his time as champ as being a boring point fighter. Six of his nine title fights went to the decision.
Although not the most exciting, that tends to happen with long-time champions.
His one career loss inside the distance came against Alex Pereira but it was well into the fifth round and this line still would've cashed in that instance.
These two are among the top defensive strikers in the UFC, which is crucial when backing an over.
Both guys boast a striking defence rate above 55%, meaning less than half the strikes thrown against them connect.
Key Stat: Seven of the last nine middleweight title fights have gone over 4.5 rounds.
Other picks
Prates to win by finish (-122): The Brazillian made quite a few fans with his knockout of the night over Charles Radtke.
But that was nothing out of the ordinary — he has won his last eight fights (two in the UFC) by knockout.
Prates has never seen the third round in his MMA career and is on a 12-1 run overall.
His opponent, Li Jingliang, was quite active in 2021/2022 when he stepped into the octagon three times in less than a year.
The 36-year-old has been away from competition since, which is worrisome for a fighter his age. Two years off with injury can be hard to come back from, especially against an opponent this dangerous.
"The Leech" will be trying to overcome a six-inch reach disadvantage as well. A formula for disaster against a sniper of a striker like Prates.
I expect the Brazillian to find his mark and end this bout with strikes. But he's also developed an underrated submission game to fall back on.
Aguilar to win (+180): Finally, I want to take a risk on a nicely sized underdog from the prelims.
Aguilar is a 10-2 flyweight who's 2-1 in the UFC. His one loss came to Tatsuro Taira who is most likely the next in line for a title shot.
His other career loss came in his first bout back in 2015. He's in strong form, creating value here.
Standing across from him will be Stewart Nicoll — an 8-0 prospect from Australia.
He has potential but is yet to step into a UFC cage and his career opponents have a combined record of 28-17 on the regional scene. There are many fighters within the promotion with more fights on their record than that.
It would be a different story if Aguilar was unproven or on the verge of getting cut. But he's proven he belongs on the biggest stage and is worth taking at this price against a newcomer.
