It’s an exciting time to be a Reds fan.
Toronto FC's 2022 campaign kicks off on February 26, but their season will truly begin after marquee signing Lorenzo Insigne officially joins the club on Canada Day.
The dynamic Italian forward immediately vaults TFC into contender status, which will be a welcome return to top-end competition.
The club faltered in 2021, failing to qualify for the MLS playoffs. But a new year means new hope, and with renewed excitement, you may be looking at how to bet on Toronto FC.
How to bet on Toronto FC
When betting on TFC, you will notice there are a number of possible markets to choose from. Each of the market odds will be set based on several factors: the opponent, injuries, and weather, among others.
Let's take a look at some of the most popular markets that sportsbooks offer to those looking to bet on Toronto FC.
Moneyline betting (draw no bet)
Want to pick TFC to win the match, but aren’t interested in a draw mucking up your bet slip? Draw no bet is the solution.
Essentially a moneyline bet, one team will be denoted as a favourite, with a (-) sign next to its name, while the other will be an underdog, signified by a (+) sign.
If you pick TFC to win and they do, the bet hits. But if a draw takes place, your stake will be returned as if the bet never happened.
Whether TFC is a favourite or underdog will depend on who it is playing, recent form, and injuries. If Toronto was playing at New England, it would be sizeable underdogs. At home against LA Galaxy, the Reds may be a slight underdog. They would surely be the favourite, however, for a home contest against FC Cincinnati.
The odds presented to you would look something like this:
Toronto FC (+225) @ New England Revolution (-300)
Toronto FC (+150) vs. LA Galaxy (-150)
Toronto FC (-160) vs. FC Cincinatti (+180)
Based on those odds, here's what you would win off a $100 wager if you successfully bet on TFC. What these odds also tell us is the team's implied win probability in those particular matchups.
|Odds||Wager||Win||Implied win probability|
It's probably not wise to place a wager on TFC to win against New England, as there's only a 30.77% implied probability of that occurring.
At home against LA Galaxy, however, you begin to see better value.
The most popular way to bet on soccer, full-time result allows you to pick if TFC will win, lose, or draw.
Using the same examples as before, we can see how the odds can differ from draw no bet to full-time result. (Toronto FC is Team A in all of the below examples.)
|Matchup||Team (A)||Draw||Team (B)|
|TFC @ NE||+333||+220||-125|
|TFC vs. LA||+220||+250||-105|
|TFC vs. FCC||+105||+225||+275|
With the possibility of a draw added, the likelihood of a bet on TFC winning against New England becomes 23.09%, down from 30.77%.
Betting on a draw may seem dull, but TFC had 10 such contests in 2021, and there's typically always a strong return on investment.
Betting totals is a way to wager on how many goals will be scored in any given contest. This is also known as the over/under or O/U.
Totals are typically set in the MLS at 2.5 and have even odds of -110 for both the over and under. If three goals are scored, the over hits. The under would cash if two goals or fewer were conceded.
If TFC is playing against a high-scoring offence, you may see the total reach 3.5. But when playing at home in cold weather, something we Canadians are all too familiar with, the total could be set at 1.5.
There are also options to bet team totals, meaning you can wager on how many goals TFC would score in any given contest. If TFC is a heavy underdog, like it is in that New England example, its goal total could sit at 0.5, meaning finding the net just once would win the bet. If TFC is in great form, with Insigne playing, its goal total would likely sit at 1.5.
The Reds averaged 1.15 goals per game in 2021 while conceding an average of 1.94 goals per contest. This is a rudimentary way of looking at trends but, on average, TFC's team total of 1.5 would have gone under, while a game total of 2.5 would have gone over (1.15 + 1.94 = 3.09 total goals per game).
With new faces arriving in 2022, it will be important to track trends and assess the total on a game-to-game basis.
How to bet on Toronto FC props
Prop betting is a way to wager on Toronto without having to worry about the team winning or losing. The prop market is typically divided into two categories — game props and player props.
Game props involve both teams and are usually presented in an over/under or yes/no format. Some examples of game props could be: total corners o/u 9.5, total cards o/u 4.5, will a player be sent off yes/no.
Let’s focus on player props for now. This is a way to wager on how many saves Alex Bono will make, how many passes Michael Bradley will complete, or how many tackles Luke Singh will have. Each prop is presented in an over/under format and generally has even odds.
One of the most popular player props is choosing an anytime goal scorer. Let's use Alejandro Pozuelo as an example.
There can only be one first goal scorer, and one last goal scorer, so the odds are inflated to reflect that. Betting Pozuelo to score anytime, though, would net you $200 on a $100 bet.
The odds on goal scorers vary drastically depending on position, tactics and recent form.
Parlays and specials
Specials are sometimes presented as a same-game parlay by some sportsbooks and are a way to combine multiple markets into a single ticket. Each market is known as a leg.
These can be pre-built selections offered by the sportsbook or be created by the user. In either case, every leg of the bet must win in order for the parlay to cash. If one leg loses, the whole bet does.
Let's say TFC is playing the Portland Timbers at home. You believe TFC will win the match in a high-scoring bout, and also want to bet on Insigne to score a goal. The bet would look something like this:
Lorenzo Insigne anytime goalscorer, over 2.5 total goals, TFC to win (+1265)
For this specific ticket, a $100 bet would win you $1265. There's a 7.33% implied probability of this occurring, which is much lower than any of the individual legs in the ticket as seen below:
Lorenzo Insigne anytime goalscorer (+175)
Over 2.5 goals (-110)
TFC to win (+160)
These parlays are essentially increasing the risk for a much better payout. The payout becomes higher but the bettor is also assuming more risk as more legs are added.
Outside of what we mentioned, you can live bet TFC as well. You can also pick them to win the league or bet on Lorenzo Insigne to win the golden boot — these can be found in the futures section of sportsbooks.
For more insights, check out our guide to betting on soccer.