UFC 304 goes down Saturday night in Manchester, England.
The pregame narrative: Fan favourite Paddy Pimblett is fighting in front of his home crowd and I think he has a favourable matchup. That's why I'm backing him to win as my best bet for the card. Meanwhile, I like Christian Leroy Duncan to win his bout further down the card.
Check out our UFC 304 best bets for the event on July 27.
UFC 304 best bets overview
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| UFC 304 best bets | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Pimblett to win | -107 | Add to betslip |
| Duncan to win | -137 | Add to betslip |
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UFC 304 best bets
Best Bet: Pimblett to win (-107)
Pimblett (21-3-0) is a favourite amongst the English crowd due to his witty character and exciting fighting style.
He throws heat while standing and has a smothering top game with slick submission skills. Grappling is his strong suit as 12 of his 23 career wins have come by submission or ground and pound.
Bobby Green (32-15-1) is a good boxer with impressive defence but I predict Pimblett to be the stronger athlete.
Green has solid takedown defence (74%), per UFC Stats, but there is some evidence of him having a hard time if an opponent can get him to the mat.
Islam Makhachev made light work of him on the ground, losing via brutal ground and pound in the first round.
Don't get it twisted, the lightweight champion is a much better fighter than Pimblett but they both have a grappling style that is based on their incredible strength.
Green can also be susceptible to the knockout as he gets older. His last three losses have come by KO/TKO and at the age of 37 with 48 pro fights, it's hard to trust his chin.
Pimblett is explosive in all areas and I fully expect him to dominate this fight early although his cardio is the lone aspect that worries me.
But seeing how he was able to still outpoint Tony Ferguson when he was out of gas in the third round gives me more confidence in his fight IQ when tired.
Key stat: Pimblett has won all five of his UFC fights.
Quick pick
Duncan to win (-137): Duncan (10-1-0) has slowly become a true contender in the middleweight division.
He will have a chance to prove it against strong veteran Gregory Rodrigues (15-5-0) in front of his home crowd.
Duncan's use of his 6-foot-2 frame and 79-inch reach makes it difficult for opponents to get inside and land strikes on the Englishman
He has just 11 pro fights under his belt but carries an extensive 22-fight amateur career. The 29-year-old's experience can be deceiving on paper but you can see it in the cage.
His striking is pure and he moves well for his size. Duncan lands 5.96 significant strikes per minute (62% accuracy) while absorbing 3.82 (50% accuracy).
Rodrigues is the taller fighter but gives up four inches in reach to his counterpart. The Brazillian has a brawling style and lands about as many strikes (6.08 per minute) as he takes (5.30 per minute).
It can be the result of some very exciting wins but also some brutal losses to better strikers. That was evident when he was knocked out by Brunno Ferreira in the first round back in 2023.
Duncan is the better kickboxer and I expect him to land more clean shots in a win.
Picks made at 3:40 p.m. on 07/26/2024.
