There are a boatload of preseason choices for NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
The latest: Micah Parsons is the favourite but he's one of five players with odds shorter than 10-to-1. T.J. Watt is third on the board behind reigning DPOY Myles Garrett while Montez Sweat is an interesting choice well down the line.
Here are the latest NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds
Check out the latest odds to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Click linked odds to bet now.
Best NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds
The favourite: Micah Parsons (+500)
Parsons has had a pretty good start to his career: Three years, three All-Pro teams.
The Dallas Cowboys superstar logged the seventh most sacks (14.0), sixth most tackles for loss (18), and third-most QB hits (33) in 2023.
He also led all edge rushers in pass rush win rate (35%) and double team rate (35%), per ESPN, and finished third in DPOY voting behind Garrett and Watt.
Watt had a pretty good case to win the award (more on that later) but Parsons should also be miffed that Garrett was selected over him. The Cleveland lineman had three fewer QB hits, one fewer TFL and the same amount of sacks as Parsons.
Garrett also only had one sack in his final six games.
So perhaps the fourth-year stud can use that as motivation to reach new heights.
Parsons plays an integral role on the most scrutinized team in football. If he can continue to produce at a high level through insane double-team rates, he should have a good chance at winning.
Other NFL Defensive Player of the Year choices
Best value: T.J. Watt (+1,000)
Watt's 19.0 sacks last year led the NFL and were five clear of both Garrett and Parsons.
He also led the league in QB hits (36) and was fifth in TFL (19) and forced fumbles (four). But hey, sometimes that's just not enough to get the job done:
Left was DPOY. Right was runner-up.
— StatMuse (@statmuse) February 9, 2024
33 TKL 48 TKL
14.0 SCK 19.0 SCK
4 FF 4 FF
1 FR 3 FR
0 FR TD 1 FR TD
0 INT 1 INT
Garrett had 23 1st-place votes, Watt had 19. pic.twitter.com/PSYLFsC0Yl
Garret (29%) and Parsons (35%) were both double-teamed nearly twice as often as Watt (14%) but had higher pass rush win rates. So it's fair to say they were more productive given how offences prepared for them.
Even so, Watt has a knack for getting to the quarterback that can't be replicated. He's posted eye-popping numbers year after year and on a micro level has made clutch play after clutch play.
Pittsburgh's defence was also missing some big names like Cameron Heyward and Minkah Fitzpatrick for the majority of the season.
With those names back in the fold for 2024, I expect Watt to put up even better numbers on a stronger defence.
DPOY betting notes
- Garrett (+600) might not have led the league in any stats but he did lead Cleveland to a playoff spot by headlining a defence which gave up the fewest yards per game (270.2). If he can turn those pass rush wins into sacks and get in the high teens or crack 20 he will have a good shot at defending this award.
- Nick Bosa (+800) and Maxx Crosby (+900) round out the group with odds shorter than 10-to-1. Both players posted double-digit sacks last season with 30-plus QB hits. Bosa has the benefit of playing on a super team in San Francisco but Crosby has taken things to another level in Las Vegas.
- Sweat (+3,000) might be worth a sniff on the new-look Chicago Bears. The 27-year-old ranked 10th in sacks (12.5) and QB hits (25) and was 17th in TFL (14). He was traded from the Washington Commanders mid-season and should be the face of the defence on a competitive team.
