The 2023 NFL season is still young, but Tua Tagovailoa has wasted no time soaring into the lead on the MVP odds.
The pregame narrative: Tagovailoa has already had a couple of massive statistical performances through three weeks, and his odds are suddenly half of the next highest competitor, Patrick Mahomes. Josh Allen has some value (especially if he can nix the turnover bug) and Christian McCaffrey is a viable non-QB option.
Here are the latest NFL MVP odds.
NFL MVP odds
Check out the latest odds to win NFL MVP. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.
| Player | Odds (Sept. 26) | Odds (Sept. 18) | Odds (preseason) |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +250 | +500 | +1,800 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +500 | +500 | +600 |
| Jalen Hurts | +800 | +1,000 | +1,100 |
| Josh Allen | +1,000 | +1,100 | +800 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1,300 | +900 | +1,400 |
| Justin Herbert | +1,600 | +1,600 | +1,200 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +1,600 | +1,600 | +1,600 |
| Joe Burrow | +2,000 | +2,000 | +800 |
| Brock Purdy | +2,000 | +2,000 | N/A |
| Trevor Lawrence | +2,200 | +1,600 | +1,600 |
| Dak Prescott | +2,500 | +1,500 | +2,200 |
| Deshaun Watson | +3,500 | +3,000 | +3,000 |
| Jared Goff | +4,000 | +4,000 | N/A |
| Christian McCaffrey | +4,000 | N/A | N/A |
| Tyreek Hill | +5,000 | N/A | N/A |
| Micah Parsons | +5,000 | N/A | N/A |
NFL odds as of 1:55 p.m. on 09/26/2023.
Best NFL MVP odds
The favourite: Tua Tagovailoa (+250)
On paper, the Dolphins/Chargers game had the highest ceiling for offensive excitement among the Week 1 matchups. And thanks in large part to Tagovailoa, that game delivered.
But wow, Miami's opener had nothing on its Week 3 performance.
The Dolphins hung 70 points and 726 yards on the Broncos, with all aspects of the offence firing effectively. That includes Tagovailoa, of course, who had a near-perfect passer rating while throwing for 309 yards and four TDs on 23-of-26 passing.
Speed kills, and Miami's QB has a ton of that to work with in his offence.
The fastest ball carriers in a game this season, via @NextGenStats:
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 25, 2023
1. Tyreek Hill, Week 3: 22.07 MPH
2. De'Von Achane, Week 3: 21.93 MPH
3. Tyreek Hill, Week 1: 21.66 MPH
4. Raheem Mostert, Week 2: 21.62 MPH
5. Tyreek Hill, Week 1: 21.52 MPH
6. De'Von Achane, Week 3: 21.5 MPH…
Coming into the season, Tagovailoa's health risk likely scared off some bettors. He missed five games due to a concussion last year. But it's clear that the 25-year-old is a bonafide weapon when healthy.
Other NFL MVP choices
Best value: Josh Allen (+1,100)
The betting favourite to win MVP for large stretches of last season hasn't had the rosiest start.
Allen has committed five turnovers through three games, including a three-INT game in Week 1 against the Jets. And we haven't seen him light it up much through the air, either, with two of his three games finishing under 240 passing yards.
So why is he a value? Because we know his ceiling is high as an arm talent, and he has excellent upside as a rusher, too.
Allen had a 10-yard touchdown scamper last week, and he's rushing for 39 TDs already in 80 career games. If he gets up around the 10-TD mark as a rusher, cuts down on the turnovers and leads the Bills to a division title, he'll have a really strong case.
It's interesting that the MVP frontrunner is in Allen's division. We'll see Tagovailoa and Allen go toe-to-toe twice this season, including this coming Sunday.
Player to watch: Christian McCaffrey (+4,000)
McCaffrey's 40-to-1 odds are the shortest for a non-QB so far, and that has our attention.
The NFL's leading rusher (117.7 yards/game) is not just productive from a volume standpoint. He also has a nose for the end zone, having scored in 12 consecutive games dating back to last year (playoffs included).
The MVP is a QB-dominant award, as only one non-quarterback has won since 2007 (Adrian Peterson, 2012). But McCaffrey has the type of workload in a great offence that could push him over the top.
One thing we hope to see more from him is receiving work. McCaffrey has averaged 49.1 receiving yards per game in his career, but he's only at 23.3 yards per game so far this year. If that ticks up, look out.
Again, the fact that he's not a quarterback is a risk. But ask yourself this ... would you rather have McCaffrey at 40-to-1, or his quarterback, Brock Purdy, at 20-to-1?
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