Odds to win NFL MVP: Mahomes is favoured, Stroud is a value play

Stroud is +1,000 to win NFL MVP. Photo by Eric Gay/AP/.

We're less than a month away from NFL (preseason) football.

The latest: Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have a three-peat on their minds but who's to say the quarterback isn't eyeing a third MVP trophy, too? Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud is an enticing value play on the upstart Houston Texans and everyone wants to know: Is Christian McCaffrey a feasible non-quarterback option?

Here are the latest NFL MVP odds.

NFL MVP odds

Check out the latest odds to win NFL MVP. Click linked odds to bet now.

Best NFL MVP odds

The favourite: Patrick Mahomes (+500)

Mahomes is coming off the worst regular season of his career ... and he still won the Super Bowl.

He posted career lows in yards per game (261.4), touchdowns (27), quarterback rating (92.6), and interceptions (14). The Chiefs went 11-6 and had to play the AFC Divisional and Championship rounds on the road.

After that, the rest is history.

One would have to think Mahomes would prefer that outcome over winning the MVP and losing in the playoffs. But there's a good chance he just goes ahead and wins both this year.

The Chiefs' receiving corps was downright awful last season but has gotten a much-needed shot in the arm with the additions of Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy.

Those two can take the top off any defence while Travis Kelce remains one of the best ever at diagnosing and exposing soft coverages across the middle.

Mahomes should have a much easier time moving the ball down the field this season.

Other NFL MVP choices

Best value: C.J. Stroud (+1,000)

Texans fans are going to be happy for a long, long time.

Stroud lit the NFL on fire in his rookie season. He was first in passing yards per game (273.9), third in yards per attempt (8.2), and fifth in passer rating (100.8) among quarterbacks with more than eight games played,

He finished a pedestrian 14th in touchdown passes (23) but that number should drastically increase in 2024.

That's because Stroud debatably has the best receiving corps in football.

Houston executed a blockbuster trade for Stefon Diggs before the draft. The former Buffalo Bill has posted six straight seasons of 1,000-plus yards and has 29 touchdowns in the last three years.

He'll slot in alongside Nico Collins, who posted 1,297 yards in 2023, and Tank Dell, a sophomore who hauled in 709 yards and seven TDs over 11 games during his rookie season.

Those three will be hard to stop while Joe Mixon adds some nice versatility out of the backfield and Daulton Schultz is a reliable safety blanket.

And on top of that, Stroud has what most NFL fans like to see. That "dawg in me" X-factor to close out games.

MVP betting notes

  • Joe Burrow (+800) is second on the odds board. The Cincinnati Bengals gunslinger has undeniably been MVP-worthy... when healthy. Burrow suffered a second season-ending injury four campaigns in last year with a torn wrist ligament but will be back for the start of camp. He's got Ja'Marr Chase to throw to and posted 4,475 yards and 35 TDs two seasons ago.
  • Josh Allen (+900) lost his WR1 and WR2 during the offseason and now has Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman as his top three options. If he can continue to put up solid numbers through the air with that trio and feast on the ground he'll get plenty of buzz.
  • Can Lamar Jackson (+1,200) lock up a third MVP and his second in as many years? The addition of Derrick Henry would seemingly place a stronger emphasis on the run game but that could leave Jackson open to feast on read options. He's a much-improved passer but will likely have to rack up gaudy rushing totals.
  • Jordan Love (+1,400) is in an enviable situation for any QB. He's got three young studs in Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed to throw to and a pair of do-it-all tight ends with Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. His O-line is solid and he was debatably the best quarterback in the latter half of 2023.
  • If McCaffrey (+5,000) couldn't win MVP last year, when will he? The running back led the league in rushing yards (1,459) and was tied for touchdowns scored (21) while putting up 564 receiving yards, too. He might be able to replicate those numbers again — but if it wasn't enough last year, why would it be now?
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