Blue Jays picks vs. Guardians: June 22

Blue Jays picks and props vs. Guardians June 22: Fade Berrios, back Cleveland's team total

The Cleveland Guardians have scored six-plus runs in each of their past three matchups against Jose Berrios. Photo by Chris Young/CP.

Jordan Horrobin

@JordanHorrobin

June 22, 2024

Jose Berrios and Ben Lively match up for the second time in a week as the Toronto Blue Jays face the Cleveland Guardians.

The pregame narrative: Toronto eked out a 7-6 win with Berrios on the mound last Sunday. But the team hasn't won since. Cleveland has had a top-tier offence all season and I'm taking the over on the Guardians' run total as my best bet.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Guardians for June 22.

Blue Jays picks vs. Guardians

Go to full Blue Jays/Guardians MLB betting markets.

Best bet: Guardians over 4.5 runs (-103)

Cleveland has made a habit of clearing this line in recent games, throughout the season and in this particular matchup.

The Guardians have scored five-plus runs in each of their past five games — a stretch that began with Sunday's matchup against Berrios.

Over their past 11 games, the Guardians have posted a .777 OPS as a team and cashed this bet eight times.

This isn't just a hot streak waiting to end, though. Cleveland has been MLB's second-highest scoring offence (5.02 runs/game) in 2024. The club has scored five-plus runs in 40 of 73 games (54.8%).

Berrios has faced the Guardians three times since 2022, and the 104-plate-appearance sample definitely skews in Cleveland's favour.

Current Guardians hitters are 30-for-94 (.319) with nine extra-base hits and just eight strikeouts against the Toronto right-hander.

On any given night, Cleveland would be a reasonable pick to go over 4.5 runs. But given how the team is producing in recent weeks — and its strong history against Berrios — I'm particularly bullish.

Key stat: Cleveland has gone over 4.5 runs in all three games vs. Berrios since 2022.

Quick picks

Berrios under 17.5 outs (+112): Be warned, Berrios has only cashed this under in three of 15 starts this season. If that stat is enough to keep you away, I get it.

But based on everything laid out in the section above — about Cleveland's talented offence and its history against Berrios — I think today's matchup can buck the trend.

The Berrios we saw in March/April is not the one we're seeing now:

March/April (seven starts): 1.44 ERA, .596 opponent OPS
May/June (eight starts): 4.66 ERA, .792 OPS

Bowden Francis handled a bulk role on Friday and the Jays were off Thursday, so the bullpen is very fresh. If Berrios is getting touched up, there shouldn't be a reason to push him.

Steven Kwan over 1.5 bases (+128): Kwan has been on fire since returning to the Guardians' lineup three weeks ago, and I think he'll keep it rolling today.

In 15 games since coming off the injured list, Kwan has a .466/.537/.655 slash line. He's cashed this prop 11 times.

Cleveland's leadoff man is essentially Luis Arraez with more oomph. Kwan isn't a power hitter per se, but his expected batting average (.338) is the highest in the majors because he is an expert at connecting at the appropriate plane.

Kwan also has MLB's lowest whiff rate and strikeout rate. If he's swinging, he'll almost certainly put the ball in play.

In past matchups, Kwan has batted 4-for-7 off Berrios with two walks and a home run.

Picks made at 9:10 a.m. on 06/22/24.

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