Blue Jays picks vs. Guardians: June 21

Blue Jays picks and props vs. Guardians June 21: Take the over and back Guerrero

Back Vladimir Guerrero Jr. tonight. Photo by Nick Wass/AP.

Avery Perri

June 21, 2024

The Toronto Blue Jays hit the road in desperate need of some wins.

The pregame narrative: Toronto was just swept by the Boston Red Sox at home and now begins a three-game set against the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians. Yariel Rodriguez makes his first start for the Jays since landing on the IL in April. I'm taking the over and am backing the Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Guardians for June 21.

Blue Jays picks vs. Guardians

Go to full Blue Jays/Guardians MLB betting markets.

Best bet: Over 9 runs (-104)

Rodriguez's MLB sample size is minimal and I can't trust him tonight, especially after an extended layoff.

The 27-year-old righty looked good enough in his first four games, posting a 4.11 ERA across four starts while never throwing more than 4.0 innings.

A short leash seemed reasonable for a player who was a reliever — albeit a very good one — in Japan two years ago. Rodriguez posted a 1.48 ERA in 56 appearances for the Chunichi Dragons in Nippon Professional Baseball back in 2022.

Thoracic spine inflammation sent him to the IL and I expect him to be rusty and Toronto to be cautious with his workload.

The Guardians score the fourth-most runs per game (4.00) and have scored at least five runs in four straight games. They also have the 10th-best wRC+ against righties (105).

Rodriguez should get touched up and then Cleveland will get a Blue Jays bullpen which ranks 26th in ERA (4.66) and last in home runs allowed (44).

I also don't trust Carlos Carrasco to keep Toronto's bats at bay.

The veteran carries an awful 5.80 ERA and 1.46 WHIP into tonight's matchup and gave up five earned runs in 5.0 IP against the Blue Jays last week.

Key stat: The over is 15-11-2 in games where Cleveland is a home favourite.

Quick picks

Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+100): Vladdy has cooled off after a red-hot May where he slashed .357/.447/.469 in 25 games.

Toronto's first baseman is only batting .250 in June with a .669 OPS but I'm bullish on his chances tonight. Guerrero has a hit in four of his last five games and got a knock off Carrasco when these teams met last week.

Carrasco also profiles as the type of pitcher he should hammer.

The soft-throwing righty either throws a fastball or sinker 45% of the time and neither of those top out at more than 94 mph. Guerrero is hitting .320 against fastballs under 95 MPH, according to Baseball Savant.

He does have a +2 run value on breaking pitches and throws a slider 21% of the time but Guerrero is still hitting a respectable .284 against those offerings this year.

Picks made at 12:37 p.m. on 06/21/24.

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