The Toronto Blue Jays look for a series win against the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday.
The pregame narrative: Bowden Francis gets the ball for Toronto and he's been hit hard by Baltimore before. I expect the O's to put up plenty of runs and am also backing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to stay hot.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Orioles on Aug. 7.
Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles
Go to full Blue Jays/Orioles MLB betting markets.
Best Bet: Orioles over 5.5 runs (+110)
You don't often see a team total sitting at 5.5 runs but tonight's mismatch warrants that line.
The Orioles are an offensive juggernaut, ranking near the top of several key offensive categories:
- 1st in home runs (175)
- 2nd in wRC+ (118)
- 3rd in runs per game (5.07)
- 3rd in OPS (.771)
- 7th in batting average (.255)
There are matchups pitchers circle on the calendar and matchups they want no part of. This is certainly the latter for Francis.
Toronto's reliever-turned-starter has already gotten roughed up by the O's this year. He's allowed 11 hits and seven earned runs in two appearances (9.0 IP, 7.00 ERA).
And the advanced metrics are even more troubling.
The Orioles are hitting a collective .333 against Francis with a .668 xSLG in 41 combined plate appearances, according to Baseball Savant.
For context, Shohei Ohtani is slugging .625 this season.
Baltimore could clear this mark before Francis exits the game. But even if he manages a decent outing, the Orioles should get after Toronto's relievers.
The Jays' bullpen ranks 27th in WHIP (1.39), 28th in ERA (5.00) and 30th in home runs allowed (67).
Key stat: Baltimore is averaging 5.63 runs/game against Toronto this year, clearing this line in three of the last five meetings.
Quick pick
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+105): If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Vladdy is on an 18-game tear with no signs of slowing down. He's 33-for-66 (.500) with 10 doubles, nine home runs and a 1.061 SLG in that span.
And the numbers get even more ridiculous when you isolate his at-bats against lefties.
He's 8-for-15 with six extra bases hits (three doubles, three home runs). That means Vladdy is cashing this bases prop in 40% of his at-bats against left-handed pitching.
Trevor Rogers isn't an elite southpaw and carries a 4.76 ERA into this game.
Baltimore's best course of action would probably be to pitch around Guerrero so I wouldn't mind also backing him to score a run at +106.
Picks made at 10:50 a.m. on 08/06/24.
