The National League's top two teams meet for the rubber match at Dodger Stadium tonight.
The pregame narrative: The Philadelphia Phillies have struggled to hit right-handed pitching lately so I'm taking the over on Gavin Stone's strikeout total. Freddie Freeman is also a good bet to record multiple bases in a plus matchup.
Check out my Phillies vs. Dodgers props for Aug. 7.
Phillies vs. Dodgers props
Go to full Phillies/Dodgers betting markets.
Best Bet: Stone over 4.5 strikeouts (-125)
Twice in the past week, I've backed righties to clear their K prop against Philadelphia (Logan Gilbert o6.5 Ks, Tyler Glasnow o7.5 Ks) and twice it's cashed.
Stone isn't near the level of those two pitchers but I like his odds of making it 3-for-3.
The Phillies are in a 5-12 slide since the all-star break mainly due to an offensive power outage against righties. They rank 20th in K rate (23.8%), 25th in batting average (.218), and 27th in wRC+ (74) vs. RHP since July 19.
Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto are all batting below the Mendoza Line in that span with Harper and Turner having more strikeouts than hits.
Stone does a good job making batters swing at junk, as evidenced by his 83rd percentile chase rate (31.7), per Baseball Savant.
He's not great at putting batters away (18.5% K rate, 20th percentile) but I'm hoping a struggling Phillies lineup won't be disciplined enough to wait for good pitches.
Key stat: Stone has cleared this mark in five of his last 10 games.
Quick pick
Freeman over 1.5 bases (+112): Freeman is one guy who definitely doesn't struggle to hit righties.
In fact, the first baseman has made a career of capitalizing on his platoon advantage with .313/.404/.541 splits against RHPs since he entered the league.
This year has been no different. Freeman is batting .311 with a .951 OPS against righties.
Rookie Tyler Phillips gets the ball for Philadelphia and he just got rocked by the Seattle Mariners.
Phillips gave up five hits (three of which left the ballpark) and eight earned runs in just 1.2 IP last Friday.
He only allowed five earned runs in four starts before that but did have a 4.89 ERA in 92.0 innings of Triple-A ball prior to being called up in July.
I expect Freeman to get after the 26-year-old tonight.
Picks made at 12:38 p.m. ET 08/07/2024.
