Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta is featured as the top recommendation for today's showdown opposite Chris Sale and the Atlanta Braves.
The pregame narrative: Expect to see plenty of strikeouts with those two on the mound. I'm betting on Peralta to clear a modest K line and have other plays on Cole Ragans and George Kirby.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for August 7.
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Best bet: Peralta over 5.5 Ks (-152)
I love Peralta at this price. The Braves are not the dynamic offensive team without top-of-the-order threats Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies. And there’s no shame in that.
Their production is impossible to replace and it’s evident Atlanta is struggling without them.
In the 14 games since Albies went down with a fractured wrist (Acuna has been out far longer), the team ranks 28th in batting average and 22nd in wRC+.
It also leads MLB in K%. If you go back to the last 30 days, only the Colorado Rockies have struck out more.
Isolated to right-handers only, which Peralta is, and it’s much of the same. On the season, the Braves have MLB’s fifth-highest K rate against RHPs.
Peralta is a big swing-and-miss arm who tops this line regularly. He doesn’t always work deep, but Atlanta's compromised offence gives him a good shot to stay out longer and provide more strikeout opportunities.
The 28-year-old is seventh in the majors in K% a year after finishing fourth. He’s one of the game’s premier strikeout artists, setting this up to be a juicy matchup.
Key stat: Peralta has cleared this line in 17 of his 22 starts.
Quick picks
Ragans over 17.5 outs (-132): The Kansas City Royals ace has gone under this line in two consecutive outings, going 5.2 innings in each start.
Before that, Ragans cleared this in eight of nine starts. For the season, he's 16-7 vs. a 17.5 outs line.
Ragans runs into a strong Boston Red Sox offence but he's shut down plenty of good lineups this season to turn himself into one of the AL's most valuable starters.
Tonight marks the 13th consecutive day the Royals have played, so they will surely be looking for some length out of the lefty.
Kirby over 18.5 outs (+120): I typically stay away from betting on a pitcher to go more than six innings but I like Kirby to do just that tonight.
The Seattle Mariners right-hander lives around this line and has a plus matchup at home, where he sports a 2.52 ERA over 10 starts.
Kirby's T-Mobile Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in baseball, per Baseball Savant's park factors, and the Detroit Tigers offence has been horrific in recent weeks.
In 17 contests since the All-Star Game, the Tigers rank 29th in batting average (.208) and wRC+ (72), behind only the lowly Chicago White Sox.
Kirby has gone at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts, clearing this four times.
Picks made at 1:33 p.m. ET on 08/07/2024.
