The Toronto Blue Jays begin a three-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies at Rogers Centre tonight.
The pregame narrative: Chris Bassitt and Tyler Phillips get the ball for Toronto and Philly, respectively, and they've been anything but consistent. I expect both to struggle and am taking the over alongside a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. prop.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Phillies on Sept. 3.
Blue Jays picks vs. Phillies
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Best Bet: Over 8.5 runs (-125)
Which version of Bassitt and Phillips are fans going to see tonight?
Let's start with Bassitt, who has an awful 6.13 ERA over his last 10 starts. The righty has gotten shelled by the likes of the Detroit Tigers and Oakland Athletics while tossing quality starts against the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles.
He's been a bit of an enigma but has generally looked worse at Rogers Centre. Bassitt's 4.76 home ERA is notably higher than his 3.65 road ERA.
Toronto has given up an average of 7.0 runs per game in his last five starts at home. Mind you, those include runs after he's been pulled — but the Jays' bullpen is among the worst in baseball so we have to factor that in.
Now for Phillips.
The rookie had a spectacular start to his MLB career and then the wheels fell off. He posted a 1.80 ERA across four starts in July but a 13.91 ERA through three starts in August.
He was sent back down to the Triple-A for a pair of starts and didn't fair much better, posting a 9.35 ERA. But Taijuan Walker has been even worse for Philly and got moved to the bullpen, which opened a spot for Phillips.
This isn't exactly a soft landing spot.
Toronto has the most home runs (20) with the third-best wRC+ (138) and slugging percentage (.508) in the last two weeks.
Key stat: Each of Phillips' last three starts had 12-plus runs scored.
Quick pick
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+100): This pick doesn't need much explaining.
I think Phillips is in for a long night so backing one of the best hitters in baseball makes sense.
Vladdy slashed .375/.454/.673 in August with six multi-hit games in his last eight outings.
He was given a rest day on Sunday along with George Springer and Daulton Varsho and should be fresh heading into a plus matchup at home.
Vladdy's 1.005 OPS at Rogers Centre is almost 100 points higher than his .906 road OPS.
Getting him at even odds against a struggling pitcher feels like a steal.
Picks made at 9:25 a.m. on 09/03/24.
