Oneil Cruz is featured as the top player in today's MLB prop picks.
The pregame narrative: Cruz has an excellent matchup and I'm backing him and Jose Ramirez on their total bases prop. I'm also fading pitchers Steven Matz and Walker Buehler.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 3.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Cruz over 1.5 bases (+108)
Cruz is hitless in September but ended August with multi-hit games in five of six contests, finishing the the month with a .389/.449/.537 line.
He's been a .325 hitter with a .906 OPS since the All-Star Game.
That's the kind of bat I want a piece of for the Pittsburgh Pirates' matchup versus the Chicago Cubs. Chicago is deploying right-hander Kyle Hendricks, who was obliterated by the Pirates last week and is having a terrible season.
Hendricks lasted 1.1 innings versus Pittsburgh on Aug. 28, allowing six runs on eight hits. It drove his ERA up to 6.75, the highest mark among MLB pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings.
Left-handed hitters have particularly inflicted damage on Hendricks, posting a .322 average and .934 OPS.
The Cubs veteran has never been a big bat-misser but enters with a career-low K/9 rate. Cruz and the Pirates shouldn't have trouble putting balls in play.
Key stat: Cruz is 9-6 vs. this line over his last 15 games.
Quick picks
Ramirez over 1.5 bases (+112): The Cleveland Guardians star hits lefties much better than righties but does have 21 homers versus RHPs and slugged .509 in August.
I don't put a ton of stock into pitcher-hitter matchups, but Ramirez has done significant damage against Brady Singer, who starts for the Kansas City Royals tonight.
Ramirez has 12 hits in 32 career plate appearances, going deep three times. It works out to a robust .480/.594/.920 slash line.
Singer is coming off his worst month of the season, allowing four-plus runs in three of five starts for a 5.53 ERA.
The Royals righty has thrown well at home (2.88 ERA, 23.9 K%), but Kauffman Stadium has been an excellent park for offence.
Ramirez has 34 homers and the fifth-lowest K rate among qualified hitters.
Matz under 4.5 Ks (-152): You'll have to pay for this one.
Matz is making his first MLB start since April. He was rocked over six outings before hitting the injured list and didn't clear this line once.
He didn't have success in the K department throughout his rehab assignment, either, and his workload played a part. Matz made six starts at Triple-A in August, getting to five Ks and five innings just once.
The lefty should not be expected to work deep and is up against a Milwaukee Brewers team that's eighth in wRC+ since the ASG.
Buehler under 4.5 Ks (-118): This was plus money overnight but I still think there's value.
Walker has a bottom-four percentile whiff rate, per Baseball Savant, leading to a well-below-average 17% K rate.
He has produced double-digit swinging strikes once in 11 starts and has cleared this line only twice (in plus matchups against the Rockies and Reds).
Walker has gone under this number in six straight and only got to four punchouts once during that stretch.
The Los Angeles Angels are a good matchup but not one I expect Walker to take advantage of. His short outings (under 5.0 IP in all three August starts) won't do him any favours, either.
Picks made at 1:14 p.m. ET on 09/03/2024.
