After a 4-2 road trip, the Toronto Blue Jays are back at home to face the Cincinnati Reds.
The pregame narrative: Julian Aguiar makes his MLB debut on the mound for the Reds, while Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the Jays. I'm backing Toronto to get off to a solid start and for Gausman to have some staying power.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Reds on Aug. 19.
Blue Jays picks vs. Reds
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Best Bet: Blue Jays -0.5 - first five innings (-122)
It's been a lost season for the Blue Jays, and Gausman's step back is certainly part of that. After a third-place finish in AL Cy Young voting a year ago, Gausman is having his worst season since before the pandemic.
But it's not too late for the veteran right-hander to finish on a high note — and things are trending in that direction.
Since July, Gausman has a 3.17 ERA and a .212 opponent batting average. He only has 12 quality starts on the year, but five of them have come in his past seven outings.
Quality starts (i.e., six-plus innings and three or fewer earned runs allowed) give teams a chance to win. Or at least to succeed through the first half of a game. Gausman's recent steadiness is one reason why I like Toronto on the F5 line.
Another reason is that the Reds have a thoroughly underwhelming offence. They rank 26th in the league in wRC+ (90) and scored just three total runs in their three-game weekend series against Kansas City.
Lastly, I feel good about fading the Reds in Aguiar's MLB debut. The 12th-round pick from 2021 is up in the bigs because of attrition, not opportunity. Cincinnati simply needs a built-up starter to take the ball.
Over his past five outings in Triple-A, Aguiar has allowed 18 runs on 29 hits in just 27.0 IP.
Toronto's lineup may perform like a minor-league squad sometimes, but I think this group should be able to do some damage tonight.
Key stat: Toronto is 5-1-1 on the F5 moneyline in Gausman's past seven starts.
Quick pick
Gausman over 18.5 outs (+107): I'm not sure if it's a coincidence or an emerging trend, but Gausman has pitched to contact far more often in recent games. As a result, he's been able to work deeper.
Last year, Gausman led the American League in strikeouts (237) and K/9 (11.5). This year, his 8.1 K/9 is his lowest in a decade. That may not be ideal for Gausman as a pitcher, but it can be helpful for his pitch count.
Over his past six starts, Gausman has cashed this prop five times while pitching to a paltry 5.3 K/9.
The Reds' offence went ice cold in its most recent series, and if that continues, Gausman could have an even easier time collecting quick outs. Also, two of Toronto's top three leverage relievers (Chad Green, Genesis Cabrera) have pitched in two of the past three days.
Picks made at 12:27 p.m. on 08/19/24.
