The Seattle Mariners continue their three-city road trip tonight with a series opener against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The pregame narrative: Gavin Stone has struggled lately, so I'm backing a pair of Mariners hitters against him. For my best bet, I like Mookie Betts to collect multiple bases at plus money.
Check out my Mariners vs. Dodgers prop picks for Aug. 19.
Mariners vs. Dodgers prop picks
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Best Bet: Betts over 1.5 bases (+116)
Seattle's Bryan Woo is a tough pitcher to do damage against, but he tends to force hitters to put the ball in play. Naturally, that's a trait I like when targeting bases props.
Woo has just a 2.5% walk rate (99th percentile) and a 19.6% K rate. His four-seamer/sinker/sweeper combo typically puts right-handed hitters in knots, but I don't expect that to be the case for Betts.
Since the start of last year, Betts has a .317/.428/.555 slash line against those pitch types, per Baseball Savant.
His contact quality backs up the production, too. Betts has a .551 xSLG against four-seamers/sinkers/sweepers in that span.
Betts missed almost two full months with a fractured hand, knocking himself out of the NL MVP race. Fortunately, he's returned to MVP-calibre form since slotting back into the Dodgers' lineup last Monday.
The six-time Silver Slugger has multiple hits in five of six starts since returning from the injured list.
Key stat: Betts has a .521 SLG in his career against right-handed pitchers.
Quick picks
Jorge Polanco over 0.5 hits (-127): Polanco is hot and Dodgers starter Gavin Stone is not.
Seattle's veteran infielder has had a trying year and is batting just .219 — almost 50 points below his career average. But his recent results paint a more positive picture.
Over his past 19 games, Polanco is 20-for-69 (.290) and has cashed this bet 13 times. He typically bats in the No. 4 or 5 spot, so it's not as if the Mariners are burying him in the lineup.
Polanco has never faced Stone but seems to be catching him at a good time. Since the start of July, Stone has allowed 48 hits over 32.1 innings, good for a .340 opponent BA.
Victor Robles over 0.5 runs (+128): Robles has only been with the Mariners for two and a half months, but he's already enjoyed quite a wild ride.
In early June, three days after being released by the Nationals, Robles signed with the Mariners and started turning his season around. His OPS has gone from .401 to .702 since he joined Seattle.
Robles was bumped up to the leadoff spot by late July, and just last week he inked a two-year, $9.75 million contract extension. Overall, things are really looking up for the outfielder.
August hasn't been quick as kind to Robles, contract aside. He's batting just .183 through 15 games.
But Robles is still atop the Mariners' lineup, which means something against a struggling Stone. This righty-righty matchup also looks great for Robles:
- Stone vs. RHHs: .284/.308/.447 slash line (.755 opponent OPS)
- Robles vs. RHPs: .276/.346/.429 slash line (.774 OPS)
Picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET 08/19/2024.
