The Toronto Blue Jays' offence has woken up and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the catalyst.
The pregame narrative: Vladdy has gone deep in three straight games and five of his last six. I'm backing him to clear his bases total against Gerrit Cole, who is making his third start of the year after a lengthy IL stint.
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Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+105)
It's feeling like we're back in 2021.
Guerrero has been mashing the ball lately, with multiple hits in six straight games. He would have cashed this wager in each contest had those all been singles — but they weren't. Guerrero has five home runs and five doubles during this tear and is slugging an otherworldly 1.172.
Is that sustainable? Probably not. But I want to get aboard the train while it's still at the station.
Cole is the reigning AL Cy Young winner but he's only thrown 8.0 innings in 2024 after a lengthy IL stint due to elbow discomfort. The righty gave up seven hits and six earned runs in 4.0 innings against the New York Mets his last time out.
Cole will get back to his old ways at some point but even when he was at his best, Guerrero had his number.
Toronto's first baseman is 10-for-31 against Cole with three doubles and two home runs (.613 SLG).
Perhaps most importantly, Guerrero has only struck out three times in those at-bats. That nets out to a minuscule 8.3% K rate, which is more than 20% lower than his 28.7% career average.
Vladdy has consistently put the ball in play against Cole and is destroying baseballs right now. I like his chances of taking a hit for extra bases against a pitcher who's not in top form.
Key stat: Guererro has cashed this wager in seven of his last eight games, raising his OPS 83 points in the process (.760 to .843).
Quick pick
Over 4.5 runs — F5 innings (+115): Taking the over on this total a year ago with Cole and Kevin Gausman pitching would've been lunacy.
But times have changed and I don't trust a rusty Cole to keep Toronto's re-invigorated offence at bay. The same can be said about Gausman and New York.
Gausman has looked like a shell of himself this season. He carries a 4.26 ERA and 1.27 WHIP into today's contest and has given up 10 earned runs in his last three starts (17.2 IP, 5.29 ERA).
The righty's 1.4 HR/9 rate is the highest since 2019 and his 8.7 K/9 rate is the lowest since 2018. That's not going to cut it against a Yankees lineup which ranks third in runs per game (5.05) and wRC+ (118).
Four of Gausman's last five starts have gone over this total.
Picks made at 9:34 a.m. on 06/30/24.
