The final chapter of the Freeway Series unfolds tonight as the Los Angeles Angels host the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The pregame narrative: Neither pitcher scares me in this matchup, so I'm backing plus-money plays for hitters on both sides. Look for Will Smith, Mookie Betts, Taylor Ward and Mickey Moniak to make their mark.
Check out my Dodgers vs. Angels prop picks for Sept. 4.
Dodgers vs. Angels prop picks
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Best Bet: Smith over 0.5 RBI (+140)
Want in on the Dodgers' Big Three without all the juice? Here's an indirect way to get on board in a really enticing matchup.
Angels starter Griffin Canning has a 6.08 ERA and an .827 opponent OPS in 10 outings since the start of July. Last year, he was chased in the third inning against the Dodgers (four runs on five hits in 2.2 innings).
In other words, he's someone this potent Dodgers offence should tee off against.
The trio of Shohei Ohtani (-265), Mookie Betts (-165) and Freddie Freeman (-132) all have plenty of juice on their run props tonight. Who's going to drive them in? I'm hoping Smith has something to say about that from the No. 5 spot in the Dodgers' lineup.
Smith has only cashed this RBI bet in three of his past nine games, but the opportunity volume is still robust.
Over that nine-game span, the catcher has had runners in scoring position in 13 of 38 plate appearances — just over a third of the time.
Ohtani and Freeman both rank in MLB's top 10 for on-base percentage, and Betts would be in that group too if he had the qualified volume of plate appearances. It's no wonder Smith often has traffic on the basepaths.
The Dodgers' current lineup is 16-for-43 (.372) with 10 extra-base hits against Canning. If they do damage again tonight, Smith should have chances to deliver.
Key stat: Smith is 2-for-4 with a double and a walk against Canning.
Quick picks
Betts over 0.5 RBI (+133): If Smith's RBI opportunities are lacking tonight, it could be because Betts has already cleaned up at the plate.
The No. 2 spot in a baseball lineup isn't the best place to rack up RBI, but Betts has had a bounty of RBI chances in recent games.
Over his past seven games, Betts has had 14 plate appearances with RISP — nearly half of his 31 PAs in that span.
Betts has cashed this prop in 10 of his past 13 games. Also, he's 2-for-5 against Canning with a double and a home run.
Parlay: Ward, Moniak 1+ hits each (+112): Canning isn't the only pitcher worth picking on tonight. Dodgers righty Bobby Miller has a .296 opponent BA this season, so I'm parlaying two Angels hitters at plus money.
First, let's talk about Ward. The Halos' leadoff man enters tonight on a 13-game hit streak and is batting .290 since the start of last month. He feels like a strong bet to record a hit.
To get to plus-money odds, though, we have to add someone else. Moniak went hitless in back-to-back games but is still a sensible option.
The former No. 1 overall pick had a fantastic August, slashing .359/.397/.719 in 19 games. From the left side of the plate, he prefers to do damage against righties like Miller.
Picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET 09/04/2024.
