Three pitchers plus Max Muncy make up today's top MLB prop picks.
The pregame narrative: I'm fading starters Marcus Stroman, Yu Darvish and George Kirby while backing Muncy on his total bases prop.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 4.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Stroman under 17.5 outs (-109)
Yesterday was an 0-for-4 night on prop recommendations. Tonight's bounce back starts with Stroman, who's having the worst season of his career.
Stroman is coming off his longest start since May 31, working seven innings with five strikeouts and no walks in a win over the St. Louis Cardinals.
And while he logged six innings two starts before that, this is not a number he typically gets to. Those were the only two outings in his last 10 starts where he cleared 17.5 outs.
Texas’ offence has been disappointing but Stroman doesn’t have overpowering stuff and has had control issues.
The free passes (career-high BB rate) and lack of swing-and-miss (career-low K rate) leave him susceptible to a big inning, increasing his chances of a shorter outing.
Key stat: Stroman has failed to complete six innings in 17 of 26 starts.
Quick picks
Darvish under 4.5 Ks (+106): The San Diego Padres right-hander has two things working against him: He hasn't made an MLB start since May 29 and returns without going on a rehab assignment.
Darvish made 11 starts before leaving the team and going on the restricted list, falling under this number in five of those outings.
His strikeout rate has dropped in five consecutive seasons, reaching its lowest point this year (23.1 K%).
Without a rehab outing, there's reason to suspect the 38-year-old will be rusty. And because he didn't tune up in the minors before rejoining the Padres, he certainly won't be working deep.
On top of all that, the Detroit Tigers are playing well. They've won 15 of their last 21 games and are 18-12 since August 1. Over the last two weeks, they're 11th in wRC+.
Kirby under 6.5 Ks (-124): The Seattle Mariners righty isn't a huge strikeout arm on a rate level but he typically works enough innings that he's able to pile up Ks.
That hasn't been the case lately. Kirby has completed six innings once over his last six starts after doing so in nine consecutive before that. And the strikeouts haven't been there.
Over this six-start stretch, Kirby has topped 6.5 Ks once. He had a season-low two strikeouts in his last start and three Ks two starts ago.
While the Oakland A's have MLB's sixth-highest K rate, they're 21st since the All-Star Game and have won at a .585 clip.
Muncy over 1.5 bases (+125): Muncy makes his money punishing righties and he'll see a hittable one tonight.
The Los Angeles Angels are starting Griffin Canning, who has a 5.19 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 1.56 HR/9 rate. He's bottom five in all three categories among qualified starters.
Muncy is batting .250/.372/.528 over 43 plate appearances since returning from an oblique injury toward the end of August.
The L.A. Dodgers slugger has a .908 OPS versus righties this season and a mark of .572 against lefties. His splits were drastic last season, too (.881/.642).
Left-handers are batting .275 against Canning with an .831 OPS.
Picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 09/04/2024.
