We're loading up on all-stars for today's MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Marcell Ozuna has been an RBI machine this year and I like his chances of driving in a run against the Colorado Rockies. Elsewhere, look for Tyler Glasnow and Trea Turner to excel in their respective afternoon matchups.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 11.
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Best Bet: Ozuna over 0.5 RBI (+102)
There are very few situations that draw me to an RBI prop at a price like this ... but Ozuna at Coors Field — against a lefty — is one of them.
The right-handed designated hitter has always been stronger against LHPs, but that platoon advantage has been particularly prominent this season.
In 113 plate appearances against southpaws, Ozuna has a .351/.443/.577 slash line.
Today, he'll face Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, who routinely (and aptly) gets rocked by the Atlanta Braves. Freeland allowed 14 runs over just 10.0 innings against Atlanta last year, and the current lineup has a .525 SLG against him.
Assuming Ozuna is in his typical No. 3 spot of the Braves' order, he should have Austin Riley and Jorge Soler ahead of him. Those batters are 8-for-20 (.400) against Freeland.
That gives me hope that there will be traffic on the basepaths, as does the fact that this series has featured 30 total runs through two games. Expect Ozuna to have some quality RBI chances in a plus matchup.
Key stat: Ozuna, who leads the NL with 90 RBI, has cashed this prop in nine of his past 15 games.
Quick picks
Glasnow over 8.5 Ks (+110): This is hefty ask for any pitcher, but the price is right and so is the matchup.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have the sixth-highest K rate in the majors and Glasnow tallied nine strikeouts against them back in June.
Mid-90s heat comes easy to Glasnow, but his best put-away pitches are his curveball and slider. Pittsburgh's lineup struggles with both of those breaking pitches.
The Pirates have the third-highest whiff rate and fifth-highest K rate against curveballs and sliders, per Baseball Savant.
Over his past 16 starts, Glasnow has cashed this prop nine times.
Turner over 0.5 runs (-104): Turner has entered a bit of a cold spell, but I think he can bust out of it today against a familiar foe.
Turner's Philadelphia Phillies are up against Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Philly's lineup has put up solid numbers against Kelly (.245 BA, .447 SLG in 107 plate appearances), and Turner is at the centre of it.
The shortstop is 10-for-25 (.400) with a home run, three doubles and five walks against Kelly. Simply put, he knows how to get on base in this matchup.
Kelly posted a 2.19 ERA over his first four starts this year but hasn't pitched since mid-April. Last year, Turner doubled, walked and scored against Kelly when they met in Arizona.
Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 08/11/2024.
