Leylah Fernandez meets a familiar foe in Anastasia Potapova at the US Open.
The pregame narrative: This first-round clash marks the third time these two have met in 2024 and the fifth time overall. The head-to-head history is one-sided, but I expect Potapova and Fernandez to go the distance.
Check out our Potapova vs. Fernandez odds and best bet for their US Open match on Aug. 27.
Potapova vs. Fernandez US Open odds
Go to full Potapova vs. Fernandez betting markets.
Best bet: Over 2.5 sets (+148)
Fernandez has dominated Potapova, there's no sugar coating it.
The two have met four times (twice in 2024) and the Canadian has won each contest. Three of those occurred on clay while the other was on the hardcourts at the Mexican Open.
The gap between these competitors, however, is closing. Potapova won her first set against Fernandez in their most recent match, a three-set loss at the Internationaux de Strasbourg.
She also enters this contest in finer form. Potapova advanced to the semifinals in her most recent tournament, Tennis in the Land, before losing to the eventual tourney champ McCartney Kessler in three sets.
Fernandez's run at Tennis in the Land wasn't as impressive. She lost in the first round to world No. 103 Ana Bogdan.
A big reason why I expect this match to go back and forth is because both have sporadic serves. Fernandez ranks 38th in aces (91) and 16th in double faults (173). Potapova is 35th in aces (98) and 12th in double faults (196).
That's played out in Fernandez's recent matches. The Canadian fired home three aces to 11 double faults in her loss to Bogdan.
Four of Fernandez's last five matches have gone to three sets as a result. I expect a similar type of contest to unfold at the US Open.
Key stat: Potapova and Fernandez have identical break points converted percentages (43.7%).
Picks made at 12:54 p.m. ET on 08/25/2024.
