I'm fading a pitcher and backing a trio of hitters in Saturday's MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Cole Ragans is having a strong season but is running into a tough matchup tonight and should finish under his strikeout total. At the plate, I'm backing Nick Castellanos to go over 1.5 bases and a plus-money hits parlay for Justin Turner and Mickey Moniak.
Check out how I'm backing them in the top MLB prop bets for Aug. 31.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Ragans under 6.5 Ks (-143)
Ragans was an all-star this year, and deservedly so. He's also in the top tier of pitchers in terms of whiff rate (92nd percentile, per Baseball Savant) and K rate (89th percentile).
But this is a line he should fall under against the Houston Astros, who are a tough matchup for pretty much anyone looking to rack up strikeouts.
Houston has the third-lowest K rate in the majors against left-handed pitchers (18.8%). And the Astros' active lineup has an even lower K rate against Ragans (13.0% in 77 plate appearances).
Ragans has an impressive 10.8 K/9 this year, and a lot of his strikeout success comes via his changeup. The pitch doesn't drop out of the zone vertically (the way Trevor Richards' does), but rather it runs away from hitters horizontally while maintaining a similar plane to his mid-90s fastball.
That sounds like a winning recipe — and it often is — but I'm not banking on it against the Astros.
Houston has a 29.9% whiff rate against changeups. For context, Ragans' changeup whiff rate is 47.7%.
And again, the Astros have handled themselves fine against Ragans in the past. He finished with exactly five strikeouts against Houston in their past two matchups (April 9, 2024; Sept. 22, 2023).
Key stat: Ragans is coming off a four-strikeout performance, which is his lowest total since mid-May.
Quick picks
Castellanos over 1.5 bases (+138): After subpar results for much of the season, Castellanos is entering the home stretch in great form.
Since the all-star break, the right fielder is batting .290 with a .503 SLG. His season-long OPS has improved by more than 40 points in that span.
I'm loving his matchup tonight against Atlanta Braves left-hander Max Fried. In previous meetings, Castellanos is 11-for-21 against Fried with a double and a home run.
Throughout his career, Castellanos has an .878 OPS against lefties (.302 BA).
Parlay: Moniak, Turner 1+ hits each (+148): If you're willing to deal with similar juice as my Ragans best bet, you could definitely ride with Moniak as a straight wager.
The 2016 first-overall pick is batting .350 in August and has hit safely in 12 of 18 games. He's also coming off three consecutive multi-hit games and is 3-for-9 against Seattle Mariners starter Bryan Woo.
For those interested in turning this into a plus-money play, consider parlaying Moniak with Turner.
The ex-Blue Jay has cashed this bet in six of his past eight starts and has remarkable numbers against Los Angeles Angels starter Tyler Anderson.
Turner is 18-for-38 (.474) with three homers and five doubles against the left-handed Anderson.
Picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 08/31/2024.
