At a special venue in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees are set for the Little League Classic in prime time on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Tarik Skubal is barrelling toward an AL Cy Young victory, and he'll look to add to his resume tonight after carving up the Yankees back in May. I've got prop bets on the two biggest stars of this game: Skubal and AL MVP favourite Aaron Judge.
Check out my Yankees vs. Tigers picks for Sunday Night Baseball on Aug. 18.
Yankees vs. Tigers picks
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Best Bet: Skubal over 7.5 Ks (+112)
The Yankees strike out at a below-league-average rate, but this pick isn't really about them. It's about Skubal.
The heavy AL Cy Young favourite is bulldozing his opponents these days, cashing this prop in six of his past seven outings. In that span, Skubal has averaged 8.7 Ks per start.
Skubal's workload has been steady all season, which always makes an over more enticing. Of his 24 starts, he's completed six-plus innings 21 times.
That includes a gem at Yankee Stadium in early May: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 12 K, 0 BB.
Yes, he fanned a dozen Yankees the last time he faced them without issuing a single free pass. That's dominant stuff.
Skubal doesn't like to play with his food. His 4.9% walk rate (91st percentile) and 30.5% K rate (92nd percentile) make that very clear.
He plays off his upper-90s fastball with a devastating changeup that garners a 48.0% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. The Yankees fanned on that changeup in 12 of 17 swings back in May.
Given that Skubal has cleared this Ks total routinely in recent outings — and he was dominant earlier this year against the Yankees — the plus-money price here feels like a bargain.
Key stat: Skubal has 23 Ks in 69 plate appearances against the current Yankees lineup (33.3% K rate).
Quick picks
Judge over 1.5 bases (-108): It takes a Cy Young favourite to put Judge's bases prop in a reasonable price range. At this number, I'm happy to buy in against pretty much any arm.
Judge, who's hovering toward lock territory as the AL MVP favourite, has a staggering 1.172 OPS. He's on pace for the highest single-season OPS (excluding the COVID-shortened year) since Barry Bonds in 2004.
Walks are the primary risk for Judge to not hit this mark. But as mentioned, Skubal doesn't walk many batters.
Judge has cashed this bet in six straight games as well as 14 of his past 20. And he's 5-for-11 with two doubles and two home runs against Skubal.
Picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET 08/18/2024.
