The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies continue their series tonight.
The pregame narrative: Justin Verlander makes his second start since returning from a lengthy injured list stint. I expect Bryce Harper to give him trouble. Aaron Nola gets the ball for Philadelphia and his strikeout prop is worth fading.
Check out my Astros vs. Phillies prop picks for Aug. 27.
Astros vs. Phillies prop picks
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Best Bet: Harper over 1.5 bases (+108)
Harper was the hero last night, going 2-for-3 with a double and a walk-off RBI single.
The two-time MVP has cleared this mark in four straight games, going 6-for-16 (.375) with four doubles in that span. He's seeing the ball well and all signs point to him staying hot tonight.
Verlander looked sharp in his return to action last week, giving up four hits and two earned runs in 5.0 innings against the Boston Red Sox.
But Harper has had his number in the past and I'm not quite sold on Verlander's pitch mix.
The 41-year-old's fastball tops out at 96 mph, as it has for the last few years. He throws that pitch roughly 50% of the time, according to Baseball Savant.
That said, Verlander's fastball has a 0 run value in 2024. That ranks in the 45th percentile. Last year it had a +12 run value (89th percentile).
Harper is 4-for-9 lifetime against Verlander and has crushed fastballs from righties this season. I expect Philadelphia's top dog to win this battle between two future Hall of Famers.
Key stat: Harper is batting .354 with a .604 SLG against four-seamers under 97 mph this season.
Quick pick
Nola under 5.5 strikeouts (-132): Nola has fallen under this number in five straight starts and now faces one of the least strikeout-prone teams in MLB. This seems like a no-brainer.
The righty used to be an elite swing-and-miss arm but that was in the past. His 8.3 K/9 rate is the lowest since his 2015 rookie season and is just below the league average.
Houston has the third-lowest strikeout rate in MLB (19.3%) and has held six of the last seven opposing starters below this line (including Corbin Burnes). The exception was Zach Wheeler, who just eked by with six Ks last night.
Wheeler has an 81st percentile K rate while Nola is in the 49th percentile.
Picks made at 10:08 a.m. ET 08/27/2024.
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