Two prominent World Series frontrunners square off tonight as the Baltimore Orioles open a road series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The pregame narrative: Shohei Ohtani isn't exactly on a hot streak, but I really like his matchup tonight against Baltimore's Cole Irvin. Also, Jackson Holliday is having a tough time at the plate again and is worth fading.
Check out my Orioles vs. Dodgers prop picks for Aug. 27.
Orioles vs. Dodgers prop picks
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Best Bet: Ohtani over 1.5 bases (-103)
Even though Ohtani is slumping right now, he's still cashing his bases prop at a respectable clip.
Over his past 25 games, Ohtani is batting .192 ... but he's cleared 1.5 bases in 12 of those matchups.
A higher batting average would certainly be nice, but Ohtani's recent issues have presumably driven down this price to a compelling spot.
And the heavy NL MVP favourite typically doesn't need multiple hits to clear this mark. He's as likely as anyone to cash the bet in one swing.
Ohtani ranks in either the 99th or 100th percentile in xSLG, hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant. His 41 home runs and 312 total bases both pace the NL.
Tonight, Ohtani faces a familiar foe in Cole Irvin (they saw each other a handful of times in the AL West). Ohtani is 8-for-27 (.296) with five extra-base hits against Irvin, who has struggled mightily this summer.
Since June, Irvin has allowed a .988 opponent OPS in 12 appearances (seven starts).
Key stat: Ohtani is averaging 2.4 bases per game this season and has cashed this bases prop in 71 of 128 games (55.5%).
Quick pick
Holliday under 0.5 hits (-103): Holliday's rookie season has had more downs than ups, and unfortunately he's at another low point.
The preseason No. 1 prospect in baseball went 2-for-34 (.059) in April before being sent back to Triple-A.
He homered in his first MLB game back and enjoyed a nice stretch from July 31 through Aug. 17: .283/.328/.583 slash line, 14 RBI in 16 games.
But the bottom has fallen out since then. Holliday is hitless in his past seven starts, collecting just one walk versus 10 Ks in that span.
A veteran pitcher like L.A.'s Jack Flaherty should be able to keep the 20-year-old quiet.
Flaherty has a .194 opponent BA over his past 12 starts to go with a career-high 11.3 K/9 on the season.
Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET 08/27/2024.
