After pulling off a doubleheader sweep yesterday, the Toronto Blue Jays are back at it against the Boston Red Sox tonight.
The pregame narrative: Toronto has now won five games in a row — or six if you count the June makeup the Jays completed in Boston yesterday as part of a doubleheader. I'm going heavy on Toronto's offence for today's picks, featuring props on George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox on Aug. 27.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here
Best Bet: Springer over 0.5 runs (-120)
Springer homered in the first game of the doubleheader yesterday, though that technically goes on his record as part of a June 26 makeup game.
Even if we don't count that homer toward his recent results, Springer is finding plenty of success at the plate these days.
Over his past 10 games, Springer is slugging .591 and has scored six times. That kind of power from the leadoff spot means he's a credible threat to put himself in scoring position.
And once he's there, someone — namely, Guerrero — should be equipped to drive him in.
Vladdy, who we'll discuss more in a moment, crushes righties and he crushes at Fenway Park. Oh, and he seems to be crushing just about everybody right now. So he's a nice guy to have batting behind Springer in the Blue Jays' No. 3 spot.
Boston right-hander Cooper Criswell has allowed five hits in 12 at-bats against the Jays' current lineup. Springer is 1-for-3 with a walk.
Criswell, who has bounced in and out of Boston's rotation this year, has made eight appearances since July 12. In that span, opponents have a staggering .330/.375/.481 slash line against him.
Key stat: Springer has cashed his run prop in 22 of 42 games since returning to Toronto's leadoff spot in early July.
Quick picks
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (-127): This is approaching the limit in terms of how much juice I can deal with on a bases prop. But Vladdy has been well worth the price this month.
In August, Guerrero has cleared 1.5 bases in 14 of 22 games while posting a 1.192 OPS. He has multiple hits in three straight matchups.
Vladdy is hitting better against lefties this year than ever before, but he's doing just fine in righty-righty matchups, too. Against RHPs this year, he has a .930 OPS — his best single-season mark aside from that magical 2021 campaign.
Historically, he loves to play in Boston. Guerrero's 1.058 OPS (43 games) at Fenway is his highest at any MLB park in which he's played seven or more games.
If you're looking for a Guerrero prop at a more enticing price, consider him to score a run (-109) or record an RBI (+135).
Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (-105): This pick is a natural tie-in to me backing a pair of Jays sluggers to produce.
But the team's recent production goes a lot deeper than two players.
Over the past two weeks, Toronto leads MLB in home runs (24), SLG (.504) and wRC+ (131). Guerrero and Springer are two of the headliners within that group, but others like Joey Loperfido and Alejandro Kirk are chipping in, too.
The Jays have gone over 4.5 runs in six of their past seven games. Against a guy like Criswell who's been far from lights out, I think the offence can stay hot.
Picks made at 9:50 a.m. on 08/27/24.
