Three prop bet recommendations are coming your way for Tuesday's MLB slate.
The pregame narrative: Today's plays are on starting pitchers Gavin Williams and Tobias Myers, as well as Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith.
Check out how I'm backing them in the top MLB prop bets for August 27.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Williams over 15.5 outs (-120)
Williams has a tough matchup and has struggled to clear this line in recent outings.
He'll see the Kansas City Royals, who are one back of the Cleveland Guardians for the AL Central lead and rank fifth in wRC+ since the All-Star Game.
Williams has failed to complete five innings in three of four outings this month and is 3-7 against this line in 10 starts.
But I'm choosing to focus on this: The right-hander has elite fastball velocity, pairing that with an exceptional cutter and curveball that has not been touched up.
He has a true starter's arsenal. And he was a top 20 prospect, per MLB pipeline, ahead of his debut last June.
Williams has a good K rate (24.4%) and has not been hurt badly by the long ball. His 3.74 FIP looks significantly better than his 5.13 ERA.
That said, the biggest reason I like this play is the state of the Guardians' bullpen.
These teams played in a doubleheader yesterday and Cleveland deployed 11 different pitchers over the two games.
Key stat: Guardians relievers, including an opener, threw 13 innings on Monday.
Quick picks
Smith over 0.5 RBI (+143): Smith has been in a deep slump but still has great numbers versus left-handers: .279/.392/.538.
He had an .800 OPS against lefties last season and a mark of .908 in 2022. On top of that, Smith hits in a run-producing spot, making this an excellent matchup to cash in.
Smith was hitting cleanup for a good chunk of the season but I'm still in on this if he bats fifth or sixth, which he's done in five straight games.
That would mean he's hitting behind high-OBP guys in Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. And slugger Teoscar Hernandez, who has raked against southpaws.
The Baltimore Orioles are trotting out lefty Cole Irvin, who has a 4.82 ERA, career-high 1.41 WHIP and misses bats at a below-average rate.
Irvin has allowed 15 homers this season and 14 of them have been to righties, who are slashing .316/.364/.552 off him.
Myers over 15.5 outs (-109): The Milwaukee Brewers' rookie right-hander is 9-4 against this line since the start of June.
Over that stretch, his numbers look like this:
- 2.00 ERA
- 3.36 FIP
- 1.03 WHIP
- 5.6 BB%
Among 104 pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings since then, only a dominant Blake Snell has a lower ERA.
Myers doesn't miss a ton of bats but he's not giving up bombs, either, and he's done a great job at limiting free passes.
He'd probably go deeper more often if he wasn't a rookie. The Brewers have only allowed Myers to hit the 95-pitch mark in four of his 19 starts.
But I like him to log more than five innings against a San Francisco Giants club that is 21st in MLB in wRC+ versus righties and 10 games below .500 on the road.
Picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 08/27/2024.
