After wrapping a home series against one California team, the Toronto Blue Jays have travelled across the continent to face another.
The pregame narrative: Tonight's pitching matchup between the Bowden Francis and Los Angeles Angels righty Davis Daniel is totally nondescript. I'm backing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and fading Daulton Varsho on the prop market.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Angels on Aug. 12.
Blue Jays picks vs. Angels
Go to full Blue Jays/Angels MLB betting markets.
Best Bet: Varsho under 0.5 runs (-117)
Varsho has been one of baseball's worst hitters this year. Plain and simple.
He occasionally saves himself with a quick flash of power, but his expected metrics are as bad as they come. Varsho ranks in the first percentile — i.e., the worst percentile — in xBA (.183), xwOBA (.259) and xSLG (.308), per Baseball Savant.
As a left-handed hitter, Varsho would figure to do his best work against righties. But that hasn't been the case.
This season, Varsho has a .186/.275/.393 slash line against righties, which equates to a .668 OPS. In lefty-on-lefty matchups, his OPS is .807.
One risk with this prop is that Varsho has batted right ahead of the red-hot Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in Toronto's past four games, which means he's in a premium spot to score as long as he gets on base.
Given Varsho's terrible numbers against righties, though, there's a chance the Jays move him down in tonight's lineup. That'll be something to monitor.
It's also worth noting that while Davis Daniel (1-3, 6.04 ERA) has been hit much harder by righty batters than by lefty batters. Daniel has allowed a .943 OPS to righties and a .717 OPS to lefties.
I wanted to back Varsho under 1.5 bases (-159), but it has too much juice for my liking. This is a way to fade him at a more palatable price.
Key stat: Varsho has gone under 0.5 runs in 60 of 101 starts this season.
Quick pick
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (-112): Remember what I mentioned a moment ago about Daniel's .943 OPS allowed to righties? That makes this matchup look really, really good for Vladdy.
His 22-game hit streak came to an end on Sunday, but that shouldn't alter the sentiment around baseball's hottest hitter. Guerrero is batting .463 with a .950 SLG since the all-star break.
Though he's never faced Daniel before, there's a lot to like about the matchup. L.A.'s starter is primarily a four-seam/slider guy against righties and has allowed a .500+ SLG on both pitches.
Guerrero's slash line against four-seam fastballs and sliders this year is .324/.393/.585. He's cashed this bases prop in 16 of his past 23 games.
Picks made at 10:55 a.m. on 08/12/24.
