Today's recommendations feature the over on three hitter props.
The pregame narrative: I'm backing Rafael Devers, Marcus Semien and Manny Machado. All have favourable matchups and I expect them to deliver.
Check out why in the best MLB prop bets for August 12.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Devers over 1.5 total bases (-103)
Tonight's Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers game has slugfest potential.
I don't trust either starting pitcher to be effective at Fenway Park, the most hitter-friendly stadium in the American League (according to Baseball Savant).
The 9.5 total is the highest of the day in a matchup featuring Tyler Mahle (making his second appearance since last April) and Brayan Bello, who's fresh off the paternity list.
Mahle was serviceable in his season debut last week against a strong Houston Astros team but struggled to miss bats and his max fastball velocity was down three mph from its peak a few seasons ago.
Bello, meanwhile, has one of the highest hard-hit rates among starters and has been demolished at home.
This is a good spot to back some hitters, and I'll start with Devers. The 27-year-old star has raked at Fenway all year and punished right-handed pitching.
He enters with a .327/.413/.686 line versus righties. That 1.095 OPS trails only MVP favourites Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani.
At home, Devers' numbers are nearly as strong: .314/.395/.623.
Key stat: The Red Sox third baseman has cleared this line in 11 of his last 15 games.
Quick picks
Semien over 0.5 RBI (+160): Bello, Semien's spot in the order, and the teammates hitting in front of him are all reasons why I like this play.
The Rangers second baseman has hit No. 3 for 12 straight games after batting leadoff the entire season. That puts him behind left-handed hitters Josh Smith and Corey Seager.
Bello has surrendered a .277/.352/.509 slash line to lefty hitters and has a 5.71 ERA at home (10 starts).
Smith has a team-best .363 on-base percentage and Seager is getting on at a .389 clip versus righties.
Those are strong tablesetters for Semien, who has slumped in August following his best month of the season (.287 BA, .853 OPS in July).
Machado over 1.5 total bases (+108): I don't think this will stay plus money through the afternoon.
The San Diego Padres have a juicy matchup versus soft-tossing lefty Marco Gonzales and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Gonzales has allowed four-plus runs in back-to-back starts and six-plus hits in each of his last five outings. There's little upside here outside of potentially eating some innings (though he has failed to log five frames in three straight).
Full disclosure: I took Gonzales under 17.5 outs (-125) this morning. His outs market is unavailable at NorthStar at the time of this writing but this would probably be my top play (I would take under 16.5 as well).
Now to Machado. He has an .847 OPS since the All-Star Game and has slugged better than .500 in three consecutive months.
The sample is small, but over 11 career at-bats versus Gonzales, Machado has six hits (.545 BA, 1.273 OPS) and no strikeouts.
Picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET on 08/12/2024.
