The best pitching matchup of the night is saved for last, as Blake Snell and the San Francisco Giants host Chris Sale and the Atlanta Braves.
The pregame narrative: Snell won last year's NL Cy Young award and he's pitching in a similar calibre these days. Sale, meanwhile, is the Cy Young frontrunner this season. I'm taking the over on Snell's strikeout total as my best bet.
Check out my Braves vs. Giants props for Aug. 12.
Braves vs. Giants props
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Best Bet: Snell over 7.5 Ks (-122)
Snell went through quite a rough patch after being named the NL's top pitcher in 2023.
His free agency lasted into March and he was on the injured list by late April after three atrocious starts. He hit the IL again in early June, too.
But since returning to the Giants' rotation on July 9, he's reminded everyone of how good he can be.
Snell has gone into total shutdown mode over his past six starts, allowing just five runs and 12 hits in 39.0 innings. He has a no-hitter in there, as well as a game in which 15 of his 18 recorded outs were strikeouts.
It's too late for Snell to defend his Cy Young crown, but it's not too late for him to mow down a swing-happy Braves squad.
Since the all-star break, Atlanta has the second-highest K rate in the majors (27.5%). And on the season, the Braves have the seventh-highest K rate against left-handers (23.9%) and the fourth-highest whiff rate overall (27.6%).
It shouldn't be a surprise, then, to know that Snell has fared well against Atlanta's lineup in a decent sample. In 75 plate appearances, he has more strikeouts (20) than hits allowed (18).
The best part about Snell's recent success is that he's working well into games. Each of his past five outings have lasted six-plus innings.
Tonight's matchup against Sale is primed for a pitcher's duel, and I think Snell can hang around long enough to clear this strikeout total.
Key stat: Snell has gone over 7.5 Ks in four of his past five starts, averaging 9.2 Ks per start in that span.
Quick pick
Jorge Soler over 0.5 runs (+140): The over/under for this matchup is set at 6.5 runs, so neither team is expected to supply much in the offensive department. But this is a very interesting price for a leadoff hitter on a hot streak.
Call it the Coors Field bump if you want, but Soler has homered and collected multiple hits in three straight games.
San Francisco is a far less friendly offensive environment than Colorado, but I still like Soler's opportunity tonight. He's batting .400 over his past 15 games and has cashed this bet nine times in that span.
Against Snell, Soler is 4-for-12 with a home run, a double and a walk. He typically crushes lefties as a whole, posting a .923 OPS against them since 2021.
Picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET 08/12/2024.
