It's Canada Day, and that means the Toronto Blue Jays are playing baseball at The Dome.
The pregame narrative: Toronto turns to Yariel Rodriguez, who should be at a distinct disadvantage against Houston Astros starter Hunter Brown. I like Houston to lead after five innings as my plus-money best bet. On Toronto's side of things, George Springer has a decent price to cash his RBI prop.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Astros on July 1.
Blue Jays picks vs. Astros
Go to full Blue Jays/Astros MLB betting markets.
Best bet: Astros -0.5 - first five innings (+110)
Staring down a 12-24 record in early May, the Astros appeared to be at the end of a lengthy run of American League dominance.
But since then, Houston has played at a 103-win pace, kicked open the coffin, and revived its season.
The Astros have played particularly well recently, winning nine of their past 10 — including a three-game sweep over Baltimore last weekend. I like Houston to win today, but I really like this plus-money price to back the visitors to win the first half.
No one embodies Houston's turnaround quite like Brown.
Brown, who is hoped to be the ace-in-waiting for the Astros, has only allowed two runs over his past 29.0 innings of work. Through 16 appearances this season, it's clear he's made some effective adjustments:
- First eight appearances: 7.79 ERA, .338 BA, .957 OPS, 5.0 BB/9
- Past eight appearances: 2.06 ERA, .182 BA, .559 OPS, 2.6 BB/9
For context on that .559 OPS ... Atlanta's Orlando Arcia has a .582 OPS this season, which is the lowest among qualified hitters.
Houston is 7-2-1 on the F5 moneyline in its past 10 games, and with a red-hot starter on the mound, I expect that trend to continue.
Key stat: The Astros are 6-1-1 on the F5 moneyline in Brown's past eight starts.
Quick picks
Rodriguez under 3.5 Ks (-125): In a vacuum, this is a very low line for a starter. But I have little faith in Rodriguez to mow down the Astros.
Houston has the second-lowest K rate in the majors (18.0%), as well as the highest contact rate on in-zone pitches (86.2%), per Baseball Savant.
Rodriguez has only collected four strikeouts over his past three starts, hitting this under each time. His MLB sample is just 16.2 innings, but so far his whiff rate (23.1%) and K rate (21.0%) are both well below average.
Springer over 0.5 RBI (+175): If you want to take a flier on a Blue Jay today, I'd suggest Springer. He's on a mini hot streak right now, batting 10-for-16 with five extra-base hits in his past five games.
We used to see Springer atop the Jays' lineup on a daily basis, but a tumultuous season has caused him to lose that spot. He's settling in nicely at the No. 5 spot, though, which is prime real estate for RBI producers.
Springer is 1-for-3 with a home run against Brown.
Picks made at 10:30 a.m. on 07/01/24.
