It's a very quite Canada Day slate in MLB, but I've still got three prop bets from the two Monday night matchups.
The pregame narrative: Heralded slugger James Wood makes his MLB debut for the Washington Nationals, and his bases prop has my interest. I'm also looking at Nick Senzel and Joey Meneses to produce at the plate. In the late game, I'm fading Willy Adames in a situation that isn't as offensively-friendly as it seems.
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Best bet: Adames under 0.5 RBI (-124)
The projected total in tonight's Brewers vs. Rockies game is 11 runs, which is why I'm able to fade Adames' RBI prop at such a reasonable price.
Yes, Rockies starter Austin Gomber is struggling right now, with a 6.08 ERA in his past seven starts. And Colorado's Coors Field is MLB's best offensive environment. But there are plenty of reasons to fade Adames.
For one thing, he's ice-cold right now, going hitless in his past 26 at-bats. He batted .167 in June and went under 0.5 RBI in 19 of 27 games.
From the cleanup spot, Adames should have opportunities to drive runners in. But that won't matter much if he can't hold up his end of the bargain at the dish.
Also, a righty-on-lefty matchup for Adames might seem like a plus, but ... it's not. Adames has a pitiful .162/.292/.297 slash line against LHPs this year.
Another knock against Adames' RBI prop is that he walks 11.8% of the time, which equates to an 88th-percentile walk rate. Unless the bases are loaded, a walk won't do over bettors any good here.
Key stat: Adames has gone under 0.5 RBI in nine consecutive games.
Quick pick
Wood over 1.5 bases (+200): Heads up, this is a vibes play. Wood is making his MLB debut on Monday, so we aren't working off of any precedent at the big-league level.
Even so, it's easy to make a reasonable case for the towering outfielder who has a 1.058 OPS in 52 Triple-A games this season.
Wood, MLB.com's No. 3 prospect, had a major problem with strikeouts in 2023. But he's been vastly better this season, cutting his 31.5% K rate from last year down to 18.2%.
We won't know Wood's batting order spot until closer to game time, but he should be a threat to cash this juicy prop on a single swing. The 6-foot-7 outfielder has gone over 1.5 bases in 26 of 52 minor league games this year.
Parlay: Senzel, Meneses 1+ hits each (+128): Wood isn't the only batter in the Nats' lineup that has my attention today.
Both Senzel and Meneses have slumped recently, but they've found success against Mets left-hander David Peterson in the past.
Senzel is 4-for-9 with a double and a home run against Peterson, while Meneses is 3-for-8 with a pair of doubles.
When Washington last faced Peterson, Meneses batted third and Senzel batted fourth. They should be well-positioned to get at least one hit apiece today.
Picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET on 07/01/2024.
