Runs were at a premium in the opener between the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros, but I'm expecting something a little different tonight.
The pregame narrative: Before Toronto's 3-1 loss in Monday's matchup, the team had been on a solid run of overs. I'm backing the over on Tuesday and I like Spencer Horwitz to score as my best bet.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Astros on July 2.
Blue Jays picks vs. Astros
Go to full Blue Jays/Astros MLB betting markets.
Best bet: Horwitz over 0.5 runs (+123)
Horwitz's career is only 35 games old, but there's a lot to like already.
Take his first at-bat from Monday, for example. Facing a hot pitcher for the first time in Hunter Brown, Horwitz hung in for 11 pitches before hitting a 100.3 mph lineout to centre.
He doesn't have enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter yet, but Horwitz is on pace to be among the league's top hitters in some key Baseball Savant categories.
His .417 xwOBA, for example, would rank fifth in MLB. And his .306 xBA would rank eighth.
Horwitz's discipline shows in the fact that he only has nine strikeouts versus 15 walks/hit-by-pitches so far. That helps explain why the Jays trust him up near the top of the lineup.
In all 16 of his starts, Horwitz has batted No. 1 or 2 in the Blue Jays' lineup. If you want to score runs, that's a great spot to be.
Offence was difficult to come by for Toronto yesterday against Brown, but tonight's matchup should be more promising in that regard. Spencer Arrighetti has a 5.68 ERA and a .793 opponent OPS through 14 outings.
This is a Spencer-on-Spencer matchup that I think Horwitz can excel in. Assuming he's back in a top-of-the-order lineup spot again, this price to score looks like a bargain.
Key stat: Through 16 starts, Horwitz has a .471 on-base percentage and 10 runs scored.
Quick pick
Over 8.5 runs (-118): In fairness to Arrighetti, he's been a lot better in recent outings. But overall, the numbers still don't jump off the page in a good way.
The rookie right-hander had a 7.16 ERA in his first seven starts, and he has a 4.18 ERA in seven starts since. That's obviously a huge improvement, but it means he's still allowing runs at a higher rate than league average.
As for Jose Berrios, his 4.77 ERA since the start of May is also worse than league average. Half of his past 10 starts have cleared this run total, including each of his past three.
Toronto has gone over 8.5 runs in eight of its past nine games. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (hand) was a late scratch on Monday, and if he's back in the lineup tonight I'll like this pick even more.
On Houston's side, Jose Altuve received a rare off-day on Monday. His return bolsters a lineup that ranks seventh in wRC+ (112) and 11th in runs per game (4.7).
Picks made at 9:10 a.m. on 07/02/24.
