Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is on a tear right now, which makes his bases prop look promising in a plus matchup tonight.
The pregame narrative: In addition to backing Gurriel against the Los Angeles Dodgers, I'm riding with Jorge Soler's plus-money runs prop. I'm also fading Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez in a combo wager.
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Best Bet: Soler over 0.5 runs (+114)
Above all else, Soler is known for power. He's the 2019 AL home run champ, and he slugged his way to 36 HRs and an all-star bid with the Miami Marlins last season.
With that in mind, he's not the first guy you'd think of to be a leadoff hitter. But he took the reins on that gig a few days ago for the San Francisco Giants and found instant success.
#SFGiants got Jorge Soler back in the leadoff spot tonight. Here is BoMels reason why. pic.twitter.com/wA5UlEgWu2
— sam lubman (@slubman59) June 28, 2024
Giants manager Bob Melvin explained recently that he likes the left-handed LaMonte Wade Jr. in the No. 2 spot, and that it "makes some sense" to start things off with the right-handed Soler. If you look at Soler's career numbers from the leadoff spot, you'll see what Melvin is talking about:
- 218 plate appearances
- .249 BA
- .350 OBP
- .476 SLG
The sample size isn't huge (it equates to about a third of a season), but Soler's .826 OPS as a leadoff hitter is better than his OPS in any other batting position.
And although he's having a down year overall, with a paltry .709 OPS, Soler does have a respectable 9.8% walk rate. That ranks in the 72nd percentile, per Baseball Savant, and helps justify this leadoff opportunity he's seeing.
Tonight, Soler and the Giants face Reynaldo Lopez (6-2, 1.70 ERA), who is a few innings shy of qualifying as the NL ERA leader. That may not sound like a matchup built for scoring, but Soler has dominated Lopez in the past.
Soler is 12-for-19 (.632) against Lopez with three home runs, three doubles and a pair of walks.
That kind of head-to-head history, paired with Soler's opportunity as a leadoff man, gives me enough reason to buy in at this price.
Key stat: Soler has 14 runs in his past 14 games, cashing this bet eight times.
Quick picks
Parlay: Rutschman, Rodriguez both under 1.5 bases (+150): Tonight's showdown in Seattle between Grayson Rodriguez and George Kirby should be a good one. So I'm fading two of the game's most prominent hitters.
Rutschman is in line to start in the all-star game, so he's not someone I'm looking to fade too often. But he's 2-for-10 with three Ks against Kirby and has hit this under in 11 of his past 18 games.
Also, although Kirby doesn't walk many batters, Rutschman has the discipline to buck that trend. The catcher posted a sky-high walk rate (13.5%) last month.
Unlike Rutschman, Rodriguez is not having an all-star-calibre campaign. His .327 SLG is confounding to people who watched him finish fourth in AL MVP voting a season ago.
Seattle's talented centerfielder has gone under 1.5 bases in 12 consecutive games.
Gurriel over 1.5 bases (+135): June was an excellent month for Gurriel, and I like his matchup tonight as he looks to keep rolling.
The ex-Blue Jay posted a .337/.360/.547 slash line over 25 games and cashed this bet 18 times.
In his past 11 games, Gurriel has 17 hits, nine strikeouts and just one walk. He's a free swinger with excellent contact skills, which is exactly what you want when tailing a bases prop.
Another good omen? Positive head-to-head results against the upcoming starter. Gurriel is 3-for-6 with a double against Dodgers right-hander Bobby Miller.
Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET on 07/02/2024.
