After blowing the series opener in the desert last night, the Toronto Blue Jays are back at it on Saturday against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The pregame narrative: Jose Berrios takes the mound for Toronto, and I expect him to give the visitors some length tonight. Even so, I'm picking the Diamondbacks to win and am riding with a plus-money prop for rookie starter Yilber Diaz.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Diamondbacks on July 13.
Blue Jays picks vs. Diamondbacks
Go to full Blue Jays/Diamondbacks MLB betting markets.
Best Bet: Berrios over 17.5 outs (-127)
The impending all-star break can't come soon enough for the Blue Jays' bullpen. With two games to play, the relief corps could really use a bulldog outing from Berrios.
Toronto's bullpen has the second-worst ERA in baseball (4.87), and both pieces of its setup-closer combo (Yimi Garcia, Jordan Romano) are on the injured list. Last night, Jays relievers were tasked with covering 4.2 innings ... and they wound up blowing a late lead.
Tonight is as good a time as any for Berrios to eat some innings.
Things have often not been pretty for Berrios after he won Pitcher of the Month honours in April. Since then, he has a 5.17 ERA and a .796 opponent OPS in 12 starts.
Even so, Berrios has cashed this outs prop in eight of those 12 outings.
Berrios has a 6.2% walk rate, which ranks in the 76th percentile and helps keep his pitch count down. He also doesn't miss many bats — posting a 17th-percentile whiff rate — which can either get him into trouble or produce quick outs.
The Diamondbacks are riding a high on offence right now, but I don't think Berrios needs to shut them down to cash this prop. He's proven he can exceed 17.5 outs whether he's shoving or serving as a meat shield.
Key stat: On the season, Berrios has gone over 17.5 outs in 14 of 19 starts.
Quick picks
Diamondbacks moneyline (-129): I just referenced that the Diamondbacks' offence is cooking right now. It came alive in the clutch last night to build on a really impressive stretch this month.
So far in July, the D-backs are averaging a league-high 6.3 runs per game while posting an .820 team OPS.
Toronto, by comparison, has only scored six-plus runs in one of its past nine games.
Berrios isn't pitching anywhere near his early-season form, and now he's running into a hot lineup. Arizona is 8-3 in its past 11 games and I think it can grab another win tonight.
Diaz over 4.5 Ks (+120): Five days removed from his MLB debut, Diaz faces a tall task against the Blue Jays.
No, the Jays aren't a very potent offence overall, but they have been a pest to rack up strikeouts against. Toronto has the fifth-lowest K rate in the majors (19.8%).
Still, I think Diaz is worth a plus-money flier to hit the five-strikeout mark. He finished with five Ks in his debut and posted a blistering 12.4 K/9 rate in 15 minor league outings this year.
Hopefully the Jays' unfamiliarity with Diaz helps his stuff play up. If so, collecting five Ks isn't a huge ask.
Picks made at 11:00 a.m. on 07/13/24.
