Euro 2024 concludes with a star-studded showdown between Spain and England.
Is it finally "coming home" or can Spain reach the mountaintop with its new generation of talent? La Roja have been spotless this tournament and are favoured to win on Sunday in Berlin. But the Three Lions' survival instincts have kept them alive and it looks like they're peaking at the right time.
Check out our Euro 2024 final betting preview, which features odds for the final, historical trends and key stats.
Euro 2024 final betting preview: Trends and key stats
Let's take a look at some Euro 2024 betting trends heading into the final, courtesy of OddsPortal:
- Favourites straight up: 23-27
- Underdogs straight up: 8-42
- Draws: 19-31
- Overs (2.5 goals in regulation): 22-28
- Unders (2.5 goals in regulation): 28-22
Favourites have fared well, as expected, winning 23 times while drawing 19. That means an underdog has only won eight times in regulation this tournament.
And when things went to extra time in the knockout round, the favourites were a perfect 5-0 advancing.
Three of the four quarterfinal games went to extra time, so backing the favourite on double result (to win or tie) has cashed in six straight games. The only two underdogs to advance in the knockout round were Switzerland (vs. Italy) and Turkey (vs. Austria).
England's 2-1 victory over the Netherlands in the semifinal was its only game of the tournament which went over 2.5 goals in regulation. Spain, meanwhile, has cleared that number in three of its six outings.
Both teams have scored in regulation in each match since the quarterfinals (France vs. Portugal).
How they got here
Spain: La Roja went a perfect 3-0-0 in Group D without conceding a single goal. They hammered Georgia, 4-1, in the Round of 16 before beating host nation Germany 2-1 in the quarterfinal. Spain went down early to France on Tuesday but scored two quick goals to advance to the final.
England: England has held on by the skin of its teeth but is still here. One win and two goals were enough to win Group C. The Three Lions needed last-minute heroics to get by Slovakia and beat Denmark in penalties. They beat the Netherlands, 2-1, on a 91st-minute winner by Ollie Watkins.
Euro 2024 final betting preview: Can the Three Lions keep up with Spain?
Gareth Soutgate's side has improved with each game but is it good enough to keep up with Spain?
England entered its match against the Netherlands with just four regulation goals in five matches. It averaged the fourth-fewest xG per 90 (0.76) of any team and generated just 3.71 non-penalty xG, per FBRef.
The Three Lions held 58.3% possession against the Dutch and ripped five shots on target but still only generated 1.26 expected goals — and 0.788 of that came from Harry Kane's penalty.
That said, England has found ways to win, and that's all that matters. But it shouldn't be a surprise that Spain is the favourite.
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| Game lines | Betting odds |
| Spain to win | +155 |
| Draw | +185 |
| England to win | +260 |
| Spain to win or tie | -335 |
| England to win or tie | -186 |
| Spain to win the trophy | -155 |
| England to win the trophy | +120 |
| Over 2.5 goals | +155 |
| Under 2.5 goals | -205 |
| Both teams to score | +100 |
| Both team score | -141 |
La Roja have scored a tournament-best 13 goals and all of them have come from open play. They have more than double England's non-penalty xG (10.9 to 4.8) and are third in xG/90 (1.73).
Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams have been terrorizing teams on the wing while Dani Olmo has slotted in seamlessly after Pedri was injured against Germany.
Spain has scored in nine straight games, scoring multiple goals in six of those matches. Luis de la Fuente's side finds the net no matter the opponent and it's hard to imagine that stopping against England.
That means the Three Lions will have to snap out of their offensive funk to keep up with La Roja.
If you were looking to back England to win or tie (-186), perhaps taking both teams to score (+100) would be a better play.
Players to watch and goalscorer odds
The aforementioned Yamal put his stamp on the tournament with an incredible goal against France.
He became the youngest player to score in European Championship history at 16 years old and is +550 to net another on Sunday.
Losing Pedri seemed like a nightmare for Spain but Olmo has been lights out as his replacement. The RB Leipzig man scored against Germany and assisted on the game-winner before scoring on France.
| Goalscorer odds table | Betting odds |
| Harry Kane | +295 |
| Alvaro Morata | +350 |
| Lamine Yamal | +425 |
| Dani Olmo | +500 |
| Phil Foden | +600 |
| Jude Bellingham | +650 |
| Nico Williams | +650 |
| Bukayo Saka | +700 |
| Fabian Ruiz | +750 |
| Rodri | +950 |
Soccer odds as of 1:49 p.m. on 07/11/2024.
Kane holds the shortest odds of any player to score for good reason.
The striker has three goals and is the team's designated penalty taker. But Kane has generated plenty of chances from open play and leads all English players with 2.0 non-penalty xG.
Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka have each stepped up in different moments, with the former saving the team's tournament in the 95th minute against Slovakia and the latter scoring the game-tying goal against Switzerland.
