A European champion will be crowned in Berlin on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Spain has been the team of the tournament and is favoured to beat England in the Euro 2024 final. I expect La Roja to deliver behind another strong performance from midfielder Dani Olmo.
Check out this Spain vs. England picks for the final on July 14.
Spain vs. England picks
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| Picks | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Spain to win | +155 | Add to betslip |
| Olmo over 0.5 SOT | -132 | Add to betslip |
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Spain vs. England prediction
Best Bet: Spain to win (+155)
These teams are not the same.
Spain went a perfect 3-0-0 in the group stage without conceding a goal before beating Germany and France en route to the final.
England, meanwhile, won Group C with a 1-2-0 record and two goals scored. That gifted the Three Lions a bracket consisting of Slovakia, Switzerland and the Netherlands. And winning those three games was no easy task.
A last-minute Jude Bellingham goal saved England from elimination against Slovakia while penalties were required to beat Switzerland.
I'll give Gareth Southgate's side credit for playing its best game yet against the Dutch, who were far from a pushover. But even in that contest, England managed just 1.26 expected goals and 0.788 of that came from a questionable penalty, per Opta Analyst.
Southgate has an embarrassment of riches up front with Harry Kane, Bellingham, Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden. But truthfully England has been at its best when the likes of Ollie Watkins and Cole Palmer have been subbed on.
It doesn't appear that England's skipper will make any big changes against Spain and that's a problem.
The Three Lions have found themselves down 1-0 in each of their knockout stage games. The difference is Spain is better than all of those teams and won't let up. When the changes do come, I imagine it will be too late.
La Roja's 12 goals pace the tournament and their 10.9 non-penalty xG is more than double that of England (4.8). Spain has also generated 1.73 xG/90 (third-best) to England's 0.87 (19th).
Luis de la Fuente has a distinct advantage in the midfield with Rodri, Olmo and Fabian Ruiz. I expect them to dominate possession and feed the ball to Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, who should present speed on the wing that England can't match.
Key stat: Spain is on an eight-game winning streak and only one of those contests required extra time (Germany, quarterfinal).
Quick pick
Olmo over 0.5 SOT (-132): I'll admit I thought Spain was in big trouble when Pedri went down with a tournament-ending injury.
But Olmo has been nothing short of sensational in his stead. The RB Leipzig midfielder scored against Germany and assisted on the game-winner before burying his third goal of the tournament against France in the semifinal.
His 3.95 shot attempts per 90 are the fifth most of any player in the tournament and the most on Spain.
Only Pedri has more shots on target per 90 than Olmo (1.94 to 1.54) and that's exactly who the 26-year-old has replaced in the lineup.
Picks made at 12:24 p.m. on 07/12/24.
