The Toronto Blue Jays begin a three-game stand against the San Francisco Giants.
The pregame narrative: George Springer is in the midst of his best stretch as a Blue Jay and I want in on the action. Back Toronto's leadoff man to score against a struggling Blake Snell and take the over.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Giants on July 9.
Blue Jays picks vs. Giants
Go to full Blue Jays/Giants MLB betting markets.
Best bet: Springer to score (+102)
Just a few weeks ago it looked like Springer's time as an MLB regular could be ending — and now he's the hottest player in baseball.
Funny how quickly things can change.
Springer was slashing .188/.278/.281 in late June, scoring just 31 runs in 71 games.
In the 12 games since, he's batting .436/.522/.897 with 10 runs scored. He's been the second-best position player in MLB by wRC+ (281) WAR (1.2) in that stretch, according to FanGraphs.
So how has Springer engineered this miraculous turnaround?
Sportsnet's Nick Ashbourne highlighted that much of his recent success has come against fastballs. Ashbourne notes that six of Springer's last seven extra-base hits are against four-seamers and that he's logged six barrels against four-seamers since June 23 after managing only one before.
Now Springer gets to go up against a banged-up and underperforming Snell whose fastball has been rocked.
Last year's NL Cy Young winner has an unsightly 9.51 ERA in six starts this year. His last start was on June 2 when he gave up three earned runs in 4.2 IP before being sidelined with groin tightness.
Snell has thrown a 4-seam fastball 47% of the time this year and it's produced a -6 run value, according to Baseball Savant. That ranks in the 14th percentile of all MLB pitchers.
Springer's position as the leadoff man on the road team will give him ample opportunities to go up against Snell, and later on, a Giants bullpen which ranks 21st in team ERA (4.34).
Key stat: Springer has cashed this wager in five of his last six games.
Quick pick
Over 7.5 runs (-115): Snell simply can't be trusted to put together a solid game right now and Yusei Kikuchi isn't much better.
Toronto's southpaw has given up 15 earned runs in his last four starts (16.2 IP, 8.10 ERA). All four of those games went well over this total with at least 10 runs scored.
San Francisco is one of the best teams at hitting left-handed pitching in baseball. It ranks seventh in team batting average (.263) and eighth in wRC+ (116).
The Giants should get after Kikuchi tonight.
All six of Snell's starts have gone over this number.
Picks made at 8:37 a.m. on 07/09/24.
