Netherlands and England battle for a spot in the Euro 2024 final.
The pregame narrative: The Dutch locked up their first European Championship semifinal since 2004 with a late comeback over Turkey. Meanwhile, England locked up its second-straight semi-appearance after besting Switzerland in penalties. I'm taking the Netherlands to advance as my best bet.
Check out this Netherlands vs. England best bet for the semifinals on July 10.
Netherlands vs. England best bet
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| Best bet | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Netherlands to go through | +110 | Add to betslip |
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Netherlands vs. England prediction
Best Bet: Netherlands to go through (+110)
England has needed every bit of magic to get to the semifinal and I think that runs out on Wednesday.
The Three Lions were on the brink of elimination against Slovakia but were saved thanks to a last-minute equalizer by Jude Bellingham. Harry Kane scored in overtime to put the team into the final four but that performance only raised more questions about the team's offence.
Those weren't answered against Switzerland, as England managed to get through on penalties while generating just 0.65 expected goals to the Swiss' 1.47, per The Analyst.
Gareth Southgate's side has averaged the fourth-fewest xG per 90 (0.76) in the tournament and will be pressed to keep up with a Dutch side that's found its form.
The Netherlands have scored five times in the last two games and are averaging the seventh-most xG/90 (1.49). That's practically double what England has produced.
Cody Gakpo has been as dominant as any player in the tournament and he's slotted alongside the likes of Memphis Depay, Xavi Simons, Wout Weghorst and Jeremie Frimpong. That group has given Ronald Koeman plenty of options up front.
England's defence has been superb, though, which is why I would advise against backing the Dutch to win in regulation.
The Three Lions won their opener 1-0 over Serbia and have been level after 90 minutes in their next four matches. This could very well require extra time and penalties to decide.
With that said, I can't see Southgate miraculously solving the team's offensive woes against a Netherlands side which has defended better than the scoreboard indicates.
Also, England must be a bit worn down having played an additional 60 minutes in the last week.
Key stat: The Netherlands have generated 6.56 non-penalty xG to England's 3.71.
Pick made at 2:21 p.m. on 07/09/24.
