I'm backing two batters to produce and am fading one pitcher in today's MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Erick Fedde has been great for the Chicago White Sox but he doesn't boast great swing-and-miss stuff. His strikeout total is worth a fade against the red-hot Minnesota Twins. Elsewhere, Austin Riley and Juan Soto should have solid nights at the plate.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for July 9.
MLB prop bets
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Best Bet: Fedde under 4.5 strikeouts (+120)
Fedde has been one of the few bright spots during Chicago's tire fire of a season.
The veteran righty carries a 3.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP into tonight's contest and is surely a name on many general managers' radar ahead of the upcoming trade deadline.
He has succeeded by keeping the ball out of the air and limiting hard contact. Fedde has a 70th percentile hard-hit rate (36.1) and ground ball rate (47.0), according to Baseball Savant.
There's nothing wrong with pitching that way — but compare those numbers to his 44th percentile K rate (21.5) and 20th percentile whiff rate (21.2) and you can see why I'm fading him tonight.
Fedde has gone under this number in three of his last five games and now runs into a buzzsaw of a Twins lineup.
Minnesota has owned the league's best offence since June 1. It ranks first in runs per game (5.91), batting average (.295), wRC+ (140), and OPS (.851) and can easily knock Fedde out of this game early.
Key stat: Minnesota has the second-lowest strikeout rate (17.4%) since June 1.
Quick picks
Riley over 1.5 bases (+125): Riley was slumping pretty badly to begin the season but it looks like the two-time Silver Slugger has found his stroke.
He has hit .287 with a .949 OPS since June 1 with nine home runs and nine doubles in 34 games. Before then, Riley had a .228 batting average and .648 OPS with eight doubles and three home runs in 42 games.
It's been night and day.
And now, the Atlanta Braves young gun gets to go up against Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks. That would concern most batters, but Riley has produced against the 2023 NL Cy Young finalist.
Riley is 4-for-10 against Gallen with a single, double, triple, and home run.
He has cleared this mark in six of his last seven games.
Soto over 0.5 runs (-139): Getting Soto at this price to score is generally a great play.
The first-year New York Yankee has lived up to the hype with an MLB-best .430 on-base percentage. Only Bobby Witt Jr. (72), Shohei Ohtani (72), and Gunnar Henderson (76) have scored more runs than Soto (71).
The 25-year-old hasn't been at his best lately with a .200 batting average in his last 15 games. But he's still getting on base at an absurd .403 clip in that span and has scored 11 runs.
Soto is 2-for-3 with a walk against Tampa Bay Rays starter Ryan Pepiot.
Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET on 07/09/2024
