Yusei Kikuchi gets the ball Tuesday for the Toronto Blue Jays, who won a low-scoring series opener over the New York Yankees last night.

The pregame narrative: Kikuchi is coming off a pair of strong starts, including one against New York. While I expect the strikeouts to continue, I'm betting on runs in tonight's duel with fellow lefty Carlos Rodon.

Check out these Blue Jays picks vs. the Yankees for April 16.

Blue Jays picks vs. Yankees

Best Bet: Over 8 runs (-122)

You can make a strong argument to back the under.

All three of Kikuchi's starts have landed below this number and New York cashes unders at the highest rate in MLB.

But both lineups have good plate discipline and hit left-handed pitching well.

New York has the highest walk rate in baseball and the Blue Jays rank third. That could very well come back to bite the starters, who have both walked multiple batters in every outing this season.

The Yankees have a 124 wRC+ versus lefties, which is tied with Toronto and trails only five clubs.

Kikuchi is susceptible to the long ball, too, and the Yankees have pop, ranking eighth in the majors in homers.

He's only allowed one this year, but Kikuchi has the seventh-highest HR/9 rate since 2021.

Following Kikuchi will be a Toronto bullpen that has been a weakness up against a Yankees offence that has been 20% better than league average.

Too many homers and walks and not enough Ks leads to a relief group that ranks second last in MLB in FIP (5.52).

New York's bullpen has been strong but severely lacks swing and miss (lowest K rate in the AL).

This game should see plenty of baserunners, putting pressure on pitchers to execute all night.

Key stat: Rodon's O/U record against this number since joining New York is 7-7-3.

Quick picks

Kikuchi over 5.5 Ks (-120): Even if Kikuchi gets touched up a bit, I still think he can record a good chunk of his outs via punchouts.

He has topped this number in consecutive starts against the Yankees and Mariners. Dating back to last season, he has struck out six-plus batters in 14 of his last 20 outings.

Kikuchi is a big strikeout arm that's likely to see a lot more 6.5 K lines as the season plays out.

Since joining the Blue Jays in 2022, Kikuchi is 25th in K% among 123 starters who have thrown 200-plus innings.

Anthony Volpe over 0.5 runs (+102): The 22-year-old has hit out of the leadoff spot in five consecutive games.

Volpe's robust .373/.464/.542 line moved him up in the order and he's continued to produce (.368 average, .500 OBP).

The shortstop leads the Yankees in hits, runs and OBP. He has multiple hits in six of his 16 contests and hasn't gone two games in a row without crossing the plate.

In a game where I expect some scoring, I'll take the guy at the top of the lineup who's hot and will see more plate appearances than any of his teammates.

Picks made at 10:33 a.m. on 04/16/24.