Last night's game turned into a laugher, but the Toronto Blue Jays will have a chance to right the ship on Saturday afternoon.
The pregame narrative: Chris Bassitt is rolling right now and he tends to do some of his finest work against the New York Yankees. I'm backing the Jays on the five-inning moneyline and tailing props for Bassitt and Bo Bichette.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Yankees on June 29.
Blue Jays picks vs. Yankees
Go to full Blue Jays/Yankees MLB betting markets.
Best bet: Blue Jays draw no bet - first five innings (+102)
The first half of a game can look completely different from the second half. Last night's Jays/Yankees matchup was a perfect example of that.
Toronto led 3-1 on Friday at the five-inning mark (cashing my best best, under 4.5 F5 runs, in the process). But then the wheels fell off.
Thanks in large part to a disastrous effort from the bullpen, the Jays went on to lose 16-5.
Today, I want no part of Toronto's bullpen — whose 4.78 ERA ranks 28th in MLB — but I think the Jays have some value in the game's first half.
I mean, have you seen what Chris Bassitt is up to?
The savvy veteran has put a rough March/April behind him, posting Cy Young-calibre numbers in the 10 outings since:
- 2.36 ERA
- .586 opponent OPS
- 3 or fewer runs allowed in all 10 starts
Back in April, Bassitt held the Yankees to one run over 6.1 innings in a winning effort. Since joining the Blue Jays, he's allowed 12 hits and just that one run over 21.0 innings — with 24 Ks to boot.
Nestor Cortes (4-6, 3.40 ERA) will get the ball for New York, and though he's a talented pitcher, his track record against the Blue Jays isn't nearly as impressive.
According to Baseball Savant, Toronto's active lineup has a .290 BA and a .507 SLG against Cortes in 69 at-bats.
Key stat: Toronto is 5-1-4 on the F5 moneyline in Bassitt's past 10 starts, meaning this bet has cashed or pushed nine times in that span.
Quick picks
Bassitt over 17.5 outs (-143): I think this is a perfect spot for Bassitt to go six-plus innings, so the extra juice is not scaring me off.
As mentioned, Bassitt has excellent numbers against the Yankees. He's held New York's active lineup to 19-for-94 (.202) batting with 26 Ks and zero extra-base hits.
Since joining Toronto, Bassitt has pitched into the seventh inning or later in all three starts against New York. And since May 1 of this season, he has cashed this prop in seven of 10 outings while averaging 18.3 outs.
Toronto used five relievers yesterday, and that group was collectively shelled by New York. It'd be a great time for Bassitt to eat innings.
Bo Bichette over 0.5 runs (+100): I made this pick yesterday and cashed it in the first inning. The price is even better today, so let's go back to it.
Bichette has now scored in all three games since moving to the leadoff spot. Obviously, that's the best spot in any lineup when it comes to run-scoring opportunities.
And based on his history against Cortes, Bichette should create more opportunities today. He's 8-for-13 with two home runs, a double and a walk against the New York starter.
Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 06/29/24.
