Tyler Glasnow looks to add to his MLB-leading strikeout total against the San Francisco Giants.
The pregame narrative: I like Glasnow over 7.5 Ks as one of my top MLB prop bets for Saturday. Earlier on, I'm tailing Steven Kwan and Rafael Devers' bases props at plus money.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 29.
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Best bet: Kwan over 1.5 bases (+115)
Kwan has been crushing it all season, but he somehow found a new gear after returning from a hamstring injury on May 31.
Since then, Kwan has a .395/.464/.616 slash line and has cashed this bases prop in 14 of 22 games.
Kwan is the best contact hitter in baseball — and that's not hyperbolic. He has the lowest whiff rate (5.8%) and K rate (7.0%), per Baseball Savant, as well as the highest expected batting average (.322).
Although he's not known for power, Kwan is a viable candidate to clear 1.5 bases because he doesn't walk or strikeout out much. And from the Cleveland Guardians' leadoff spot, his volume of opportunities is exceptional.
Today, Kwan is in a lefty-lefty matchup against Kansas City Royals starter Cole Ragans. That doesn't seem like the ideal spot to be in, but it's not as bad as you'd think.
Kwan has a .292 BA against southpaws in his career — and he's 27-for-67 (.403) against them this year. As for Ragans, he's allowed a .307/.358/.419 slash line to lefties this year.
Kwan is 1-for-3 off Ragans, and I like the leadoff man's chances against anyone right now.
Key stat: Kwan has gone over 1.5 bases in 30 of 54 games this year (55.6%).
Quick picks
Glasnow over 7.5 Ks (-114): Glasnow fell just shy of this total when he faced the Giants on April 3. He stacked up seven strikeouts over 6.0 innings in a quality start.
MLB's strikeout leader (135) is usually a good bet at this line, though. Glasnow has eight-plus Ks in 11 of his past 13 outings.
The Giants are right around league average in terms of K rate (21.6%, 16th-highest), so it's not a bad matchup for Glasnow.
He has 15 Ks in 52 plate appearances against San Fran's active lineup, which equates to a 28.8% K rate.
Devers over 1.5 bases (+110): Devers has homered in three straight games, and though he doesn't need to do that again to cash this prop, I wouldn't be surprised if he did.
Boston's superstar third baseman has a .660 SLG in his past 14 games and has gone over 1.5 bases eight times. On the season, his .572 xSLG ranks in the 98th percentile.
Against San Diego Padres right-hander Michael King, Devers is 5-for-8 with two HRs and two walks.
Devers is punishing all righties in 2024, posting a 1.032 OPS in 196 plate appearances.
Picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET on 06/29/2024.
