Tonight, the Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays to open a three-game series — and I've got a three-leg parlay of Jays props for the matchup.
The pregame narrative: George Springer is enjoying the best stretch of his season and looks like a fair bet to score a run. Pairing that with a hit from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a handful of strikeouts from Jose Berrios gets us to +300 odds for this ticket.
Check out the full Blue Jays SGP picks vs. Rays on July 23.
Blue Jays SGP picks vs. Rays
Go to full Blue Jays/Rays betting markets.
Parlay: Springer over 0.5 runs + Guerrero over 0.5 hits + Berrios over 4.5 Ks (+300)
Springer over 0.5 runs (-109): With how well Springer is swinging right now, I'd be happy to take this bet as a straight wager.
Over his past 20 starts, Springer has a .377/.435/.792 slash line with 16 runs scored. He earned promotion back up to the leadoff spot within that span, which has heightened his probability of scoring.
It'd be nice to see Springer cash this bet in the first inning, where he'll face Rays opener Shawn Armstrong. Against Armstrong, Springer is 4-for-9 with two doubles.
Since July 2, Springer has scored in nine of 14 starts.
Other picks
Guerrero over 0.5 hits (-305): The riskier route with Guerrero would be to take over 1.5 bases (+102). He's cashed that in four consecutive games and 14 of his past 24.
I don't mind that play as a straight wager for tonight, but in this parlay, I want something safer.
Like Springer, Guerrero is in quite a groove right now. He's batting .341 with a 1.058 OPS in his past 22 games — cashing this prop 18 times in that span.
Guerrero is 8-for-11 with a double against Armstrong, so there's hope he can cash this bet in the opening frame.
Berrios over 4.5 Ks (-143): Berrios' strikeout totals over his past four starts — zero, 10, one, 8 — are difficult to make sense of. But this is a good matchup for him to get back to stable production.
Since last year, Berrios has had five or more Ks in all three of his starts against Tampa Bay. That includes Opening Day of this season when he tallied six strikeouts over 6.0 innings of two-run ball.
This has been a career-worst strikeout year for Berrios, who's posted just a 6.6 K/9 rate so far. But the Rays are a plus matchup, and not just because of his past success against them.
Tampa has the seventh-highest K rate (24.0%) and the seventh-highest whiff rate (26.9%) in the majors.
Picks as of 9:50 a.m. on 07/23/2024.
