Italy and Croatia meet on Monday with a trip to the knockout stage on the line.
The pregame narrative: A win secures either team a spot in the Round of 16 out of the Group of Death. Italy and Croatia have looked shaky through two games but I am picking the former to win a low-scoring game.
Check out this Italy vs. Croatia best bet for the Group D match on June 24.
Italy vs. Croatia best bet and odds
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| Best bet | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Italy to win | +143 | Add to betslip |
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Italy vs. Croatia prediction
Best Bet: Italy to win (+143)
It might seem tough to back Italy after its dismal performance against Spain on Thursday.
La Roja dominated the possession battle 57.1-42.9, had nine shots on target to Italy's one, and generated 1.8 more expected goals, per FBRef. If we're being honest, the Azzurri were lucky they only lost the game 1-0.
But I think that was more of a testament to Spain's quality than anything.
Croatia hasn't looked good through two games and lost 3-0 itself to the Spaniards. It did win the possession battle in that game but wasn't clinical in the final third and didn't fare much better against Albania on Matchday 2.
The Croatians were dominated in the first half of that game and found themselves down 1-0 at the break. A pair of goals in the second half weren't enough to secure three points, though, as Albania netted a late equalizer to swing Group D wide open.
The fact that Albania managed to generate 0.9 xG to Croatia's 0.26 (one of the Vatreni's goals was an own goal) shows several flaws.
Italy dominated Albania on Matchday 1 and didn't allow a shot on target after its gift of a goal off an errand throw-in 20 seconds into the game. I can't imagine Croatia mustering much offence against the Italians' back end.
And for as lifeless as the Azzurri's offence looked against Spain, a front featuring Federico Chiesa, Gianluca Scamacca and Lorenzo Pellegrini should be able to crack a Croatian side which has allowed eight goals in its last five games.
Key stat: Italy was 4-1-0 in its last five games before losing to Spain.
Pick made at 9:30 a.m. on 06/23/24.
