Sunday night football before the NFL season? You'd better believe it!
The pregame narrative: The No. 13 LSU Tigers host the No. 23 USC Trojans on Sunday as part of an extended kickoff weekend across college football. I'm taking the over as my best bet and backing Kyren Lacy on the prop market.
Check out my top LSU vs. USC picks for this ranked Week 1 matchup.
LSU vs. USC picks
Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| LSU vs. USC Week 1 picks | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Over 63.5 points | -118 | Add to betslip |
| Lacy over 69.5 rec. yards | -114 | Add to betslip |
Go to full college football betting markets.
Best Bet: Over 63.5 points (-118)
If this game had been played last year, it would've been a Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels heavyweight bout. Both former Heisman Trophy winners have moved on to the NFL, though, giving way to a pair of first year starters.
And while I'm not suggesting Miller Moss and Garrett Nussmeier will put on exactly the same show that Williams/Daniels would have, I do believe both QBs are capable of putting up points.
Two things to keep in mind with Moss and Nussmeier:
- Both are entering their fourth year at their respective programs
- Both were top-15 QB recruits based on 247 Sports' composite rankings in 2021
So, no, we haven't seen either of these guys in an alpha role at the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) level yet. But Moss and Nussmeier were recruited to be great, and they both have far more experience than you'd expect from first-year starters.
Assuming they can run competent offences, I think that'll be enough to overwhelm some subpar defending.
LSU allowed 28.0 points per game last year, which ranked 82nd in FBS. USC was even worse, coughing up 34.4 PPG (121st).
Unsurprisingly, overs have been hot for the Tigers and Trojans in recent seasons. Since 2022, the over is 20-7 in LSU's games and 21-6 in USC's games.
Key stat: The average game total in LSU's matchups last year was 73.5 points. For USC, the average game total was 76.2 points.
Quick pick
Lacy over 69.5 receiving yards (-114): Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Naber both graduated to the NFL alongside Daniels, leaving Lacy as Nussmeier's presumed top passing target.
Last year, Lacy finished a distant third in receiving yards at LSU, but he still had respectable numbers and plenty of big-play ability. He finished with 558 yards on 30 catches, equating to a team-high 18.6 yards per reception.
The fifth-year senior finished the 2023 season strong in LSU's bowl game. With Nussmeier under centre, Lacy went for six catches, 95 yards and a touchdown.
Picks made at 2:20 p.m. on 08/31/2024.
