The US Open Round of 16 concludes with some excellent matches on Monday.
The pregame narrative: Jannik Sinner and Jessica Pegula have been sensational on the hardcourts this year. I'm picking both players to win in straight sets. Tomas Machac isn't a household name, but the tennis star is playing well and is my pick to keep it close against Jack Draper.
Check out my top US Open predictions and best bets for Sept. 2.
US Open predictions
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Best Bet: Pegula -1.5 sets (+108)
Backing Pegula on this surface is a smart call for bettors.
She's been excellent all year long, and especially lately. She's 23-6 on the hardcourts in 2024 and dominated in the lead-up to the US Open.
Pegula won at Toronto before finishing second at Cincinnati. She beat plenty of top contenders en route to those stellar finishes, including her upcoming opponent, Diana Shnaider.
Shnaider lost to Pegula in straight sets in Toronto, 6-4, 6-3, in a match where Pegula completely neutralized Shnaider's serve.
The young Russian fired home zero aces to four double faults in the loss. It was a surprise considering she's 48th among all competitors in aces (85) this year, according to WTAtennis.com.
I don't expect Shnaider to fare much better with her serve in this contest. Pegula has only conceded three aces across three matches at the US Open, meaning her return game is in peak form.
Key stat: Pegula has won eight of her last 13 matches in straight sets.
Other US Open picks
Sinner -2.5 sets (+120): Sinner is the first name that should come to mind when discussing competitors dominating on the hardcourts.
Winning consistently on this surface takes a proficient all-around game. Sinner has just that and is peaking at the right time.
The Italian ranks fifth in serve rating (294.0) and seventh in return rating (153.9) among all competitors, according to ATPtour.com. His serve has been sensational at this tournament, firing off 29 aces across three matches.
He's won nine consecutive sets at Flushing Meadows, dropping more than two games just twice during this stretch, which is a bad sign for Tommy Paul.
Paul has played well en route to an appearance in the Round of 16 and is 18-8 on the hardcourts in 2024, but this contest represents a significant upgrade in class for the American.
Paul has beaten Lorenzo Sonego (world no. 48), Max Purcell (97) and Gabriel Diallo (143). Facing off against the world's best player is a much taller task.
Sinner won the last meeting between these two, beating Paul in straight sets on this surface in Toronto last year.
Machac +1.5 sets (+106): Machac is an underdog in this contest but the head-to-head record between him and Draper suggests otherwise.
The Czech has won all three meetings against Draper, beating him on clay, the hardcourts and even carpet. Their latest encounter was earlier this year at the Geneva Open, a match Machac won in three sets.
Machac and Draper boast similar records on this surface, with the former being 17-9 and the latter entering at 15-8. Machac has the more impressive win at the US Open, disposing of world no. 16 Sebastian Korda in the second round.
This wager doesn't require Machac to win, he just needs to win two sets. With the head-to-head record heavily favouring him, he's my plus-money pick.
US Open tennis predictions made at 11:50 a.m. on 09/01/24
