One hitter and one pitcher headline tonight's MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Christian Yelich has been mashing lefties this season and gets a struggling southpaw in Andrew Heaney. I'm backing Yelich to clear his bases prop. Elsewhere, Mitch Keller is a good bet to mow down the Cincinnati Reds.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Tuesday, June 25.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Yelich over 1.5 bases (+128)
Yelich is back in all-star form after a handful of underwhelming seasons.
The 2018 NL MVP is slashing .317/.396/.482 in 53 games with a 146 OPS+. He enters tonight's contest with a hit in 11 of his last 13 games, though he hasn't gotten an extra-base hit in five outings.
We need power to cash wagers like these. While Yelich hasn't been delivering in that regard, he still has some pop left in his bat with a 78th percentile hard-hit rate (46.1%), per Baseball Savant.
The left fielder has been especially productive against lefties.
Yelich's .344 batting average and .531 slugging percentage against LHPs this season are 40 and 72 points higher than what he's producing against RHPs.
Heaney doesn't have the type of arm that should slow him down. The veteran carries an underwhelming 4.21 ERA into tonight's contest and has allowed 15 hits and nine earned runs in his last three starts.
The lefty has a 25th-percentile hard-hit rate (42.3%) and a seventh-percentile average exit velocity (90.9 mph). He also doesn't walk many batters with a 73rd-percentile BB rate (6.4%). That's good for us because free passes don't count toward Yelich's bases prop.
Key stat: Yelich is 3-for-9 against Heaney with a double.
Quick picks
Keller over 5.5 strikeouts (-137): Keller isn't a strikeout machine, but the Reds certainly are.
Cincinnati's 24.3% K rate is the sixth-highest in MLB. Keller struck out seven Reds in 7.0 IP when they met last week, which marked the third time in his last four starts he's recorded at least seven punchouts.
The 28-year-old righty has a middling 21.8% K rate (49th percentile) but that goes up to 24.5% in 94 plate appearances against Cincy.
Keller recorded seven, five, and eight Ks in his three starts against the Reds last year.
Laureano over 1.5 bases (+163): I was debating playing Ramon Laureano over 0.5 hits at -157 but will take the plunge on his bases prop instead.
The veteran outfielder was having a hellish season with the Cleveland Guardians before being traded to the Atlanta Braves.
He was hitting .143 with a .494 OPS in 83 plate appearances.
Since joining the Braves, and filling Ronald Acuna's spot in the lineup, he's batting .296 with an .815 OPS. That's a small sample size, but what isn't small is his body of work against St. Louis Cardinals starter Kyle Gibson.
Laureano is 10-for-20 against the righty with two doubles, a triple and two home runs.
Picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 06/25/2024.
