Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev face in the semifinals at Wimbledon.
The pregame narrative: Alcaraz overcame a tough foe, Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Medvedev defeated No. 1 ranked player Jannik Sinner in five sets to reach the semis. Although impressive, I'm backing the Spaniard to pick up the win in a relatively comfortable fashion.
Check out our Medvedev vs. Alcaraz odds and best bet for their Wimbledon match on July 12.
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz Wimbledon odds
Best bet: Alcaraz -4.5 games (-117)
Alcaraz has started his journey to repeat at Wimbledon on a strong foot. He's only lost four sets in five matches with two of those coming in the same outing against Frances Tiafoe.
Medvedev has been quite dominant himself. The Russian was able to take advantage of his opponent's first-set retirement in the round of 16 and use that reserved energy to outlast Sinner, winning three of the final four sets on route to victory.
He truly does have his hands full with the Spanish star, however. He is 22-3 on grass which equals his highest winning percentage on any of the surfaces (88%).
In a semifinal matchup last year, Alcaraz made out with victory in straight sets (6-3, 6-3, 6-3). In this year's rematch, I expect much of the same as the 21-year-old is playing at such a high level.
A straight-set victory on Friday would all but guarantee this line to hit but a four-set victory also provides ample opportunity for this ticket to cash.
Medvedev is a good player but I do think his most recent win against Sinner is a tad bit overhyped. If the Italian was in this spot instead, I'd still be backing Alcaraz.
Sinner just isn't as good on grass as the other surfaces. His 23-11 record (67.7%) on the lawn is nothing to write home about.
The Russian is 57-25 (70%) himself on grass but that's pedestrian compared to Alcaraz's insane 88% win rate.
Key stat: The Spaniard has won 10 of 13 sets against Medvedev since the start of 2023.
Picks made at 12:28 p.m. ET on 07/10/2024.
