Chris Bassitt gets the ball as the Toronto Blue Jays look to rebound from a tough loss.
The pregame narrative: The Jays held a 3-1 lead through seven innings last night but coughed up three unanswered to lose to the San Francisco Giants. I'm backing Toronto to rebound with Bassitt pitching and also expect George Springer to score.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Giants on July 10.
Blue Jays picks vs. Giants
Go to full Blue Jays/Giants MLB betting markets.
Best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (+135)
I don't often take the Blue Jays on the moneyline but this seems like a pretty good spot, and price, to do so.
Toronto isn't a good ball team but San Francisco isn't much better. The Giants are a middling 45-47 and sit tied for third in a competitive NL West division. The -26 run differential and 4.41 runs per game (14th in MLB) are nothing to write home about.
Bassitt has largely been a dog this season and is good enough to keep San Fran's bats at bay. He posted a stellar 1.95 ERA in June before giving up four earned runs in 5.0 IP agianst the Houston Astros at Rogers Centre last week.
That ballpark was a safe haven for Bassitt last year but things have flipped in 2024.
The righty has been much better on the road, posting a 2.93 ERA in eight starts while holding opponents to a .243 batting average. At home, he owns a 3.83 ERA and .237 OBA.
Bassitt has allowed just three earned runs in his last three road starts (20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA) — but Toronto lost each of those games.
That's a testament to how bad the Blue Jays' offence is but I like their chances against Logan Webb.
The 27-year-old carries a respectable 3.09 ERA into tonight's contest but the underlying metrics paint a less rosy picture. His 4.12 xERA and .274 xBA rank in the 44th and 14th percentiles, respectively, according to Baseball Savant.
Key stat: The Giants are 9-13 in non-league games this year.
Quick pick
Springer over 0.5 runs (+123): I backed Springer to score yesterday as my best bet and it didn't come through as he went 0-for-4 at the plate. But he's solid outside of that no-show so I'll go back to the well tonight.
Toronto's leadoff man is batting .395 with a 1.294 OPS and 10 runs scored in his last 12 starts.
He's been the fifth-best position player in MLB by wRC+ (250) and fourth-best by WAR (1.2) in that stretch, according to FanGraphs.
Springer has a very small, yet welcome, sample size against Webb. He is 2-for-3 against the righty with a double. He should have ample opportunities to reach and score tonight.
Picks made at 11:31 a.m. on 07/10/24.
